Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending & Labour Market (May 26) The May household spending and labour market data don’t provide a strong signal about the RBA’s next move. 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook One and done for the ECB Provided that the deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz results in a sustained recovery in energy flows, the damage to economic activity in the euro-zone will prove to be mild and brief. Excluding... 23rd June 2026 · 25 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cuts We doubt the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of some other central banks by raising interest rates. In fact, our economic forecasts are consistent with it cutting rates from 3.75% to 3.00... 23rd June 2026 · 15 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will lift rates to neutral level of 2% by end-2027 The economy will lose some momentum over the coming quarters as higher inflation weighs on real household incomes. But the Bank of Japan will be more worried about the upside risks to inflation and we... 23rd June 2026 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2026) The ceasefire has pushed us closer to our baseline scenario in which a return of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz limits the economic damage from the conflict and allows global inflation to... 22nd June 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2026) Signs that the labour market may be starting to stabilise makes us a bit less confident in our view that second-round effects won’t prevent inflation returning to 2.0% next year. We still think the... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus AI’s global economic shockwaves AI’s effects so far primarily reflect a boost to demand from infrastructure spending. A supply-side improvement from efficiency gains will come, but we continue to expect these to arrive gradually in... 16th June 2026 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA leaves door ajar for further tightening While the Reserve Bank of Australia predictably left rates unchanged today, it clearly signalled that it was far too early for it to declare victory in its battle against inflation. With underlying... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Have AI effects shifted to boosting US employment? It is hard to accurately gauge the extent to which the adoption of AI is affecting payrolls, but the recent improvement in jobs growth in those industries most exposed to AI suggests any negative... 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Tariffs back on the agenda The Trump administration's latest tariff announcement will have a negligible impact on the effective tariff rate for Canada. But it seems the administration will be looking for higher US content... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline... 5th June 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (May 2026) Strengthening in labour market increases chance of rate hikes this year The strong rebound in employment and the fall in the unemployment rate to 6.6% will provide some relief to the Bank of Canada... 5th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (May 2026) The third consecutive consensus-beating gain in non-farm payrolls in May should further reduce concern among the FOMC about the downside risks to the labour market, thereby making it even harder for... 5th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan edges closer to policy normalisation BoJ Governor Ueda strongly hinted this week that a rate hike is imminent, with policymakers growing concerned about falling behind the inflation curve. With wage growth remaining historically strong... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Apr. 2026) The continued strength in wage growth gives the Bank of Japan the green light to resume its tightening cycle at its meeting on 16 th June. 5th June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) While we suspect the labour market is too weak to generate big second-round effects, the inevitable rise in CPI inflation from 2.8% in April to a peak of 4.0% early next year under our baseline... 3rd June 2026 · 1 min read
