Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2025) Although the weak November jobs report muddies the waters for the RBA, there are few indications that the labour market is falling off a cliff. Given its concerns about inflation persistence, we still... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because... 10th December 2025 · 28 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebounded in Nov after likely Oct slump Following a likely 60,000 slump in October, as more than 100,000 workers dropped off the federal payroll, we estimate that non-farm payrolls rebounded by 50,000 in November. We expect the unemployment... 10th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026 The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour... 10th December 2025 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS teases an improving labour market The JOLTS data for September and October show glimpses of a rosier labour market, with firms in tariff-affected sectors posting more jobs and layoffs concentrated in a couple of sectors. This chimes... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey reveals upside risks to inflation and employment The November NFIB survey suggests that the labour market is regaining momentum, while also pointing to some upside risks to inflation. At the margin at least, that lends some support to our view that... 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank’s next move be a hike? The risk that the Bank of Canada shifts course and begins hiking is one we had not focused on as closely until today’s stellar November Labour Force Survey. While money markets are now fully pricing... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (December 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 5th December 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Nov. 2025) November’s much better-than-expected 53,600 rise in employment marks the third consecutive large consensus-beating gain, confirming that hiring has regained momentum after the initial tariff shock... 5th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Minimum wage hike another headwind to employment The 4.1% rise in the minimum wage scheduled for April 2026 will support wage growth, particularly for workers on lower incomes, but by further raising businesses’ labour costs it will probably... 5th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still uncomfortably strong in a few EMs Labour market conditions have weakened across much of the emerging world over recent months and wage growth is, on average, back in line with pre-pandemic rates. But there are wide regional variations... 4th December 2025 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch FOMC doves to prevail in contested vote We expect concerns over softening labour market conditions among the doves on the FOMC to win out next week, resulting in another 25bp cut. But in return, the more hawkish members are likely to secure... 3rd December 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Nov 2025) The modest fall in the ADP payrolls measure in November, coming on the back of a similar message from the Fed’s Beige Book, should be enough to persuade the FOMC to vote for another cut next week... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
