US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Sep) The better-than-expected 119,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September should have further reduced the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates again next month. Admittedly, revisions subtracted... 20th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ: One last cut for the road We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of... 19th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3 2025) Although wage growth in Australia held steady last quarter, underlying momentum appears to have softened a touch. At the margin, that supports our view that the RBA will resume its easing cycle in H2... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q3) Data released today confirm that economic growth in the euro-zone picked up in Q3 but remained fairly subdued and that the labour market is cooling. We expect growth to remain sluggish and the labour... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too soon to call time on the RBA’s easing cycle With economic sentiment improving, employment rebounding, and policymakers sounding increasingly hawkish, markets see only slim chances of further RBA rate cuts. However, we suspect the latest data... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of this year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3% early next year. Core inflation is likely to remain above... 13th November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2025) The renewed tightening of the labour market last month will feed the Bank’s concerns about elevated capacity pressures and keep rate cuts off the agenda in the near-term. 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Has the AI “jobpocalypse” begun? The deterioration in the entry-level jobs market has sparked concerns that an “AI jobpocalypse” is upon us. While AI is a contributing factor – especially in some specialised fields like software... 11th November 2025 · 17 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey adds to signs jobs market has stabilised The latest NFIB survey provides further evidence that the labour market has not deteriorated any further since official jobs data stopped being reported. 11th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Sep./Oct. 2025) The continued weakness in the labour market and easing in pay growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England and slightly increases the chances that it will next cut interest rates at its policy... 11th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update New immigration targets may give the BoC further pause The government’s new immigration targets raise the risk that most forecasters, including the Bank of Canada, are overestimating the outlook for population growth. While that presents a downside risk... 10th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Taking the pulse of the economy using alternative data Alternative data suggest the economy continued to perform reasonably well early in the fourth quarter. Fears of a renewed labour market downturn, amid reports of mass layoffs at several large firms... 10th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct. 2025) The surprise boost to employment and fall in the unemployment rate in October reinforces the Bank of Canada’s view that it should now sit on the sidelines and await more clarify on the impact of... 7th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) If the Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports... 7th November 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Why is hiring soft despite resilient GDP growth? Lower immigration, increased use of AI and cyclical weakness outside of the main tech sectors are the key reasons for the slowdown in private sector hiring this year. There is a risk that the drags... 6th November 2025 · 3 mins read
