Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong jobs, higher fuel prices keep rate hike in play June’s employment surge shows that Australia’s labour market remains resilient despite some broader cooling, while the sharp rise in regional fuel benchmarks is likely to push domestic pump prices... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will signal further tightening The Bank of Japan will certainly leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. With crude oil prices on track to reach their earlier peaks by the time of that meeting, we expect the Bank to... 24th July 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily US-Iran re-escalation begins to squeeze markets again The continued rise in energy prices is starting to put pressure on financial markets more broadly, beyond just the bond market. While central banks continue to take a measured approach to the renewed... 23rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Rate hikes coming, but not until September The benign June price data brought the Fed some more time to gauge how inflation evolves over the coming months. If inflation pressures remain as persistent as we expect, the Fed will begin tightening... 23rd July 2026 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE to hold rates as energy prices keep rate hikes in play The Bank of England will almost certainly keep interest rates at 3.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 30th July and the latest rebound in energy prices will ensure that it continues to stress that... 23rd July 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on pause but chance of another hike is rising The ECB left interest rates unchanged today and gave nothing away about its intentions for the next meeting in September. Based on our forecast for energy prices to fall significantly in the coming... 23rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB signals high bar for additional rate hikes The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) surprise decision to keep its policy rate on hold (rather than hike) today suggests that the MPC isn’t as hawkish as we had thought, and our base case now is... 23rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2026) The ECB’s decision to leave its policy rates unchanged was no surprise, and the press release gives no clear signal about the Bank’s next move. If energy prices drop back in the coming months as we... 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) The statement to today’s Turkish central bank (CBRT) decision, at which policy rates were kept unchanged, made clear that policymakers are concerned about the renewed rise in oil prices, which is... 23rd July 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Tinubu enters 2027 polls with a solid economic record Nigeria’s president, Bola Tinubu, will head into the elections in six months’ time at the helm of an economy with a stronger external position, a more credible central bank and some modest fiscal... 22nd July 2026 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2026) The latest activity data suggest that India’s economy is slowing, but we think GDP growth should average 6.5% in 2026-27 - an enviable rate by global standards. Rainfall in the early stages of the... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: strong growth reduces rate cut prospects The latest activity data suggest that Poland’s economy continued to grow rapidly in Q2, supporting our view that the economy will grow by more than 3% over 2026-27. The sharp drop in headline... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun. 26) The larger-than-expected rise in South African inflation, to 5.0% y/y in June, alongside the recent rise in oil prices, increases the risk that the Reserve Bank (SARB) will follow up the 25bp hike... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) Bank Indonesia left interest rates on hold at 5.75% today as we had expected (but in contrast to the consensus) and so long as tensions in the Middle East ease over the coming weeks, we think policy... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth seems to have accelerated after the start of the Iran War and there are early signs that... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
