ECB Watch ECB rates on hold despite higher oil prices It is highly likely that the ECB Governing Council will leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% next week. Although energy prices have risen sharply in the past few weeks, they remain lower than in... 16th July 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update How high will rates go in Korea? The Bank of Korea today kicked-started its tightening cycle by raising rates by 25bps to 2.75%, and the tone of the central bank’s statement makes clear that further tightening is likely. We now... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank content to look through energy-driven inflation The Bank's messaging accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% in July suggests it has no intention of responding to energy-driven inflation with higher interest rates... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jul. 2026) The Bank's messaging accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% in July suggests it has no intention of responding to energy-driven inflation with higher interest rates... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to hike rates? The renewed rise in oil prices has cast fresh uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates. But one thing that emerges from the latest CPI data is that there are a handful of countries where strong... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Can anything reverse the yen’s fortunes? While the weakness of the yen remains a puzzle, we still expect the currency to rebound by the end of next year. Our end-2027 forecast for USD/JPY is 150, which compares to a current rate of ~162. 15th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How to think about AI & inflation We think that the boost to demand from the AI investment boom is outweighing the disinflationary effects of any AI-driven productivity gains. Any suggestions that AI paves the way for near-term... 14th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Strong El Niño unlikely to unnerve the SARB A strong El Niño has brought food price risks in South Africa into focus, but we think it unlikely that this could extend the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle beyond the one 25bp hike this year in our... 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh assembles his dream team(s) The list of names announced this week to lead Kevin Warsh’s task forces on improving Fed operations comprise a well-respected and diverse group of academic economists, former central bankers, and... 10th July 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mixed news on inflation, Argentina’s debt repayment The larger-than-expected rise in inflation in the Andes in June is likely to pave the way for an interest rate hike in Peru while increasing the chances of Colombia’s central bank continuing its... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CEE inflation, Russia under more strain Inflation data released this week for Czechia and Hungary surprised again to the downside, which supports our view that the Czech central bank’s tightening cycle will be short and that the easing... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (June 2026) The small fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.6% y/y in June means that another 25bp interest rate cut at Copom’s August meeting is still in play. 10th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebound in energy prices not yet a major worry The rebound in energy prices following the breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire is not big enough to change our view that the ECB has probably finished its hiking “cycle”. Meanwhile, we think President... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to kick start tightening cycle A combination of above-target inflation, buoyant growth, a struggling currency, and rising property prices in Seoul all point to the Bank of Korea hiking rates by 25bp to 2.75% next week. We currently... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
