Japan Economics Weekly GPIF set to come to the bond market’s rescue Finance Minister Katayama’s announcement that the government will encourage pension funds, including the GPIF, to invest more in Japanese financial assets has helped unwind the spike in bond yields... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank can afford to be patient Lower oil prices reduce the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates at the expense of the economy, which remains fragile despite some recent signs of improvement. We therefore still expect the... 9th July 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) 9th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (June 2026) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation, to 3.4% y/y in June, will be welcomed by Banxico and means that interest rates will remain on hold in the near term. That said, we think June... 9th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jun. 16-17) The minutes of the Fed's mid-June meeting confirm a hawkish pivot across the entire rate-setting committee. In a scenario that resembles our baseline for the economy, where the labour market remains... 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle will be gradual The RBNZ’s decision to kick off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today came as little surprise. While the Bank made clear that further increases are likely, its emphasis on returning policy only... 8th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (July 2026) As expected, the RBNZ kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today. Its messaging broadly comports with our view that rates will rise gradually to a peak of 3.25% next year. 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July) Despite a slump in business and consumer surveys since the start of the Iran war, economic activity seems to have held up quite well. The risks to our forecast that growth stalls in Q2 are firmly on... 7th July 2026 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update From energy to food: El Niño reshapes inflation risks Despite easing energy-driven inflation pressures, central banks in Asia are unlikely to rush to unwind recent rate hikes given the growing upside risks to food inflation from El Niño. 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil rates: too much caution now priced in? Strong GDP growth and rising inflation have raised the bar for further interest rate cuts in Brazil, and we expect a pause in the cycle later this year, with just one or two more 25bp cuts over the... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update 10-year JGB yield will climb to 3% before long The latest available data are consistent with our long-held view that Japan’s budget deficit has narrowed far more rapidly than many thought. Nonetheless, with the BoJ set to lift interest rates to 2%... 6th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB interest rates & required reserves; EU-China trade The huge decline in energy prices over the past two months, together with June's HICP data, suggest that euro-zone inflation will be even lower in the near term than in the ECB's "milder scenario"... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Capacity pressures to persist despite housing weakness This week’s data will likely have reinforced the RBA’s view that tighter financial conditions are weighing on the housing market. But we doubt that housing wealth effects will push consumption much... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will have to respond to stronger inflation The latest Tankan survey showed that output prices hit a record high, driven by the influence of higher energy costs on upstream industries. While higher input costs will be passed on to consumers... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Payrolls blip a drop in the inflationary ocean June's underwhelming Employment Report was still enough to support our view that the labour market is stabilising which, paired with sticky core inflation, should prompt the Fed to reverse last year's... 2nd July 2026 · 5 mins read
