US Economics Update Labour market conditions likely to tighten again The immigration crackdown has not generated widespread labour shortages, even in those sectors most exposed. Nonetheless, if we are right to expect stronger labour demand in the coming quarters, then... 28th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2026) The drop in mid-month inflation in Brazil in July, to 4.5% y/y, is likely to provide scope for the central bank to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut at next week’s meeting, taking the Selic rate... 28th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region’s performance in Q2 was a mixed bag but lower commodity prices, tighter... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026) The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Inflation and FX concerns make August hike likely In contrast to the majority of analysts who are expecting no change, we think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hike the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% at the conclusion of next week’s Monetary Policy... 28th July 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Central bank meetings and tech earnings in focus Government bond yields have dropped back today after last week’s surge, as oil prices have retreated again amid signs of easing tension in the Middle East. Equities have welcomed the respite, too... 27th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightens policy, further moves unlikely Singapore today unexpectedly tightened monetary policy, but the communications from the central bank suggest that further tightening is unlikely in the near term. Although growth should remain strong... 27th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Bank Indonesia governor exit raises concerns over central bank independence 27th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s GDP rebound, smooth(ish) USMCA talks GDP data from Mexico due out next Thursday are likely to show that the economy rebounded last quarter after a contraction in Q1, which may quell some of Banxico's dovish talk. Further out, the outlook... 24th July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two mounting upsides to our inflation and interest rate forecasts The recent rebound in oil and gas prices and the prospect of looser fiscal policy under the new Burnham government suggests the risks to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.0%, CPI inflation to fall to... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Are indirect effects just around the corner? The indirect effects of higher energy prices on inflation have so far been absent, but they could start to emerge in the second half of the year if energy prices remain high or rise further. That... 24th July 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New tariffs, Sri Lanka tightening cycle not over US tariffs on Asian economies are entering a new phase following the expiration of the 10% global surcharge under Section 122. This is being replaced with country-specific Section 301 duties, but... 24th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Hawkish holds in Ghana & Nigeria, dovish hold in South Africa The decisions by central banks in Nigeria and Ghana to hold interest rates (rather than cut) suggests that policymakers in both countries are focusing on burnishing their inflation-fighting... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening has further to run Our fiscal tracker shows a marked acceleration in public spending since PM Takaichi came to power. While we expect the budget deficit to remain very low this year as spending growth has yet to surpass... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
