Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2026) The uptick in inflation in Brazil in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, will probably remove any lingering expectations for an interest rate cut at tomorrow’s Copom meeting. But under the... 27th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 26th January 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business sentiment improving While we still expect that GDP will end the year on a softer note, the latest retail sales data suggest the economy performed a bit better than we thought a week ago, and the latest business surveys... 23rd January 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Next Fed chair to inherit a roaring economy We’ll be waiting at least another month now for the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA-related tariffs. That means we’re on Fed Chair watch next week, to see if Trump... 23rd January 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Kast unveils his cabinet, Copom on hold next week Chilean president-elect Kast's cabinet suggest that the new administration's key priorities will be to strengthen Chile’s public finances and deregulate the economy. We doubt that this will lead to... 23rd January 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Greenland tensions aftermath, Germany finally recovering? We think that this week's flare-up in EU-US tensions over Greenland is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the euro-zone economy. Meanwhile, data out of Germany suggest its economy may be turning a... 23rd January 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s playbook, Greenland saga, Bulgarian election Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is returning to the familiar playbook of loosening fiscal policy ahead of the election in April. Any signs that a widening in the budget deficit will be sustained... 23rd January 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2026) January’s flash PMIs suggest that economic activity picked up at the start of Q1 and that inflationary pressures increased slightly. This reinforces our view that the Bank of England will keep... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ reluctant to cap government bond yields The Bank of Japan unveiled today that it had discussed tweaking the planned reduction in its bond purchase plan in response to the huge sell-off triggered by PM Takaichi’s campaign pledge to suspend... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.75% by next year The BoJ turned more upbeat when it left policy settings unchanged today and there’s a risk that the next rate hike will come earlier than our current forecast of July. And despite the recent surge in... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Jan. 26) The Bank of Japan sounded more optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today and there’s a chance that it could raise rates earlier than our current forecast of July. The Bank’s decision to... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) Although headline inflation picked up further in Q4, underlying inflation remains well behaved. That being the case, we still think the RBNZ will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period, whereas... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to leave rates unchanged throughout 2026 We think the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold again next week despite the soft data released since December’s meeting, given policymakers’ desire to gain more clarity over the future of... 22nd January 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update A quiet meeting next week for the Riksbank There is no doubt that the Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 1.75% next week and continue to signal it will not adjust its policy for many months. We think that policymakers will only start to... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan. 2026) The small rise in Mexican inflation, to 3.8% y/y in the first half of January supports our view that Banxico will leave its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% at its next meeting in February. 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 2026) The Turkish central bank unexpectedly slowed the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut, to 37.00%. We think this was a response to a likely temporary rise in inflation this month and we are... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
