Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (July) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP growth maintained a moderate pace, at 2.0-2.5% y/y, at the start of Q3. The prices components of the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2025) With underlying inflation inching closer towards the mid-point of the RBA’s 2-3% target, the Board should have no qualms about handing down a 25bp cut next month. And with activity still weak and the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2025) The latest data suggest that global industry has been resilient to tariffs so far this year. But global trade softened in May and the latest surveys point to further weakness to come. Consumer... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. President Trump’s tariff threats this month put Latin America in the firing line... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Sterling likely to weaken vs euro as UK-EZ rates converge The combination of some relatively hawkish signals from the ECB yesterday and some more soggy data out of the UK has sent the euro to its strongest level against sterling since late 2023. We think... 25th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Financial lifeline for Pemex, busy week for central banks In a busy week for central banks, we expect policymakers in Chile and Colombia to resume their easing cycle and Copom to leave its policy rate unchanged. But the overarching picture in Latin America... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: EU-US trade deal nearing, lacklustre activity data The trade deal that the EU and US are reportedly close to reaching would reduce the downside risks to activity across Central and Eastern Europe, particularly given that the region's key auto sector... 25th July 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Possible tax rises may further dampen consumer spending The disappointing economic news this week suggests there is some downside risk to our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% q/q in Q3 as fears over tax rises in the Autumn Budget already appear to be... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2025) The stable Brazilian mid-month inflation reading for July (of 5.3% y/y), signs that underlying core inflation is easing, and the resilience of the real all but confirm that Copom won’t hike rates... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to accelerate it is monetary easing cycle today with a 200bp cut to its policy rate, to 18.00%, signals that policymakers are becoming more concerned about... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s gradualism poses upside risks to rates The minutes of the RBA's July meeting showed that the Board remains reluctant to declare victory in the war on inflation – a sentiment reiterated by Governor Bullock in a speech this week. We suspect... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade deal strengthens case for further BoJ tightening Japan managed to secure a reduction in US vehicle tariffs with minimal concessions of its own. While that could eventually prompt Trump to renege on his promises, as things stand the trade deal has... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB in “a good place”, how about euro-zone markets? The ECB has left rates unchanged and, with inflation at target, we now suspect its monetary easing cycle is over. So bond yields are unlikely in our view to fall much, particularly at the short end... 24th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB now likely to leave rates unchanged With the euro-zone economy holding up relatively well in the face of tariff uncertainty, inflation likely to stay close to the target and President Lagarde adopting a slightly more hawkish stance at... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
