Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025)

The decision by the Turkish central bank to accelerate the pace of its easing cycle today with a 150bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 38.00%, was accompanied by relatively hawkish communications...

11th December 2025 · 2 mins read

ECB Watch

Risks skewed towards ECB cuts in 2026

Stronger-than-expected economic data and recent comments by Isabel Schnabel have pushed up investors’ interest rate expectations for the coming years. Christine Lagarde will acknowledge the...

11th December 2025 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (December 2025)

The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation in the fourth quarter and kept its policy rate at zero. However, we think it will be less relaxed next year, when we expect inflation to average just...

11th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Philippines Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) lowered its reverse repo rate by a further 25bps today (to 4.50%) and, with the ongoing corruption scandal likely to continue to weigh on economic activity over...

11th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Fed still a threat to Treasuries, tailwind for greenback

Our base case remains that Treasury yields will rise and the US dollar will rally in 2026, as the Fed delivers just one more cut. But Wednesday’s meeting highlighted some of the risks to that view

11th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025)

Brazil’s central bank continued to strike a hawkish tone as it left interest rates on hold again at 15.00% today. There was little in the statement to suggest that policymakers are preparing for a...

10th December 2025 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Fed softens blow of hawkish cut with asset purchase restart

The FOMC overcame its divisions to vote for another interest rate cut today, albeit with three dissenting votes. The hawks influenced the accompanying policy statement, which notes that the FOMC will...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Policy Announcement (Dec 2025)

The FOMC overcame its divisions to vote for another interest rate cut today, albeit with three dissenting votes. The hawks on the Committee had a clear influence on the accompanying policy statement...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed

Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because...

10th December 2025 · 28 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank tempers hike expectations amid stronger labour market

The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at the bottom of its 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate today, as expected. While there was recognition from policymakers that the labour market had...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec 2025)

The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at the bottom of its 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate today, as expected, while acknowledging that the economic outlook has improved somewhat since...

10th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Should central banks do more about the "AI bubble"?

Concerns about a stock market bubble are unlikely to dictate central banks’ interest rate decisions in the near term. It’s difficult to call a bubble and even harder to manipulate stock markets...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2025)

The drop in Brazilian inflation to 4.5% y/y in November won’t prompt an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting later today (we expect the Selic rate to stay at 15.00%). But it does suggest...

10th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased a touch from 12.5% y/y in October to 12.3% y/y in November despite further rent rises and fuel subsidy cuts. Even so, given the Central Bank of Egypt’s own...

10th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026

The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour...

10th December 2025 · 20 mins read