US Economics Weekly The Warsh era begins on a firmly hawkish note Kevin Warsh’s highly anticipated first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair did not fail to live up to expectations. While the promise of significant institutional reform will matter a lot over the months... 18th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Diverging rate paths Latin America has been resilient to the energy shock but other headwinds are likely to hold back regional growth to around 2% over the coming years, making it the worst-performing EM region. The... 18th June 2026 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A few more Czech rate hikes in the pipeline The communications following the Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) decision to hike the policy rate today didn’t commit the MPC to further tightening. But with growth likely to exceed consensus... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) The decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75% marks the start of what is likely to be a modest tightening cycle, with perhaps just one or two more 25bp moves... 18th June 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update BoE talks a good hawkish game, but is unlikely to deliver The Bank of England’s repeated pledge that it is “ready to act as necessary” (i.e. hike interest rates), alongside its decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, was no surprise. But provided the US... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Jun. 2026) The Bank of England’s pledge that it is “ready to act as necessary” by hiking interest rates, alongside its decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, was no surprise. But provided the US-Iran deal... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB rates will remain unchanged, all eyes on the franc The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at zero today and we think it will keep rates on hold over the next couple of years. Its commentary shows that the Bank is confident that the current monetary... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Three questions for Treasuries in the Fed’s new era A sustained rally in Treasuries is, in our view, unlikely over the next year or so, given the macro backdrop and what we’ve heard from the first press conference under the new Fed Chair. 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2026) Brazil’s central bank cut interest rates by another 25bp today, to 14.25%, and the accompanying statement appears to leave the door open to further rate cuts. 17th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed opens the door to a hike as soon as September The median projection now points to a clear chance of the FOMC hiking and, with Chair Kevin Warsh stating “we’ve got some work to do on the price stability point”, we continue to expect the Fed to... 17th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2026) The median FOMC projection now points to a clear risk of the FOMC hiking this year, but it is likely skewed toward the non-voting hawkish Fed presidents and would probably have pointed to unchanged... 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are further EM rate hikes on the cards? The fall in oil prices has eased pressure on EM central banks to tighten monetary policy. But the latest CPI data show that inflation is not just being pushed up by energy prices; other components are... 17th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May 2026) The smaller-than-expected rise in South African inflation, to 4.5% y/y in May, alongside the drop in oil prices, reduces the likelihood that the Reserve Bank (SARB) follows up May’s 25bp hike with... 17th June 2026 · 2 mins read
