Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2026) If it holds, the US-Iran agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz will help to drive a recovery in the Gulf economies and support energy-importing EMs, particularly in Asia. Still, the lasting... 16th June 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation baked in regardless of US-Iran deal If the US-Iran deal holds and oil prices remain at their new, lower level, this will swiftly lower fuel inflation. However, this drag on headline inflation would be offset – outside the US, at least –... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will lift rates to 2% by end-2027 The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate to a three decade high today and signalled less concern about downside risks to activity resulting from the Iran War. With inflation set to pick up as higher... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA leaves door ajar for further tightening While the Reserve Bank of Australia predictably left rates unchanged today, it clearly signalled that it was far too early for it to declare victory in its battle against inflation. With underlying... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (June 2026) The Reserve Bank of Australia retained policy optionality when it kept rates unchanged at its meeting today. Our base case remains that the Bank’s tightening cycle has a little further to run. 16th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (June 26) The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to a three decade high today and we expect the Bank to accelerate the pace of tightening over the coming months. 16th June 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly The PBOC can’t boost household credit demand Slowing credit growth in China is yet another sign of the dwindling consumption appetite of households. Bank lending to households has been contracting outright in recent months, even though liquidity... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC unlikely to kick off hiking cycle this year The dovish communications from the Bank of Canada this week, as well as hopes that a US-Iran peace deal is just round the corner, suggest the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Higher inflation not just an energy problem May's weaker than expected core CPI outturn and the recent fall in oil prices will be some relief to the Fed, but the big picture remains that core PCE inflation is likely to remain above 3% for many... 12th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fujimori edges ahead, CPI prints, Copom to hold It's looking increasingly likely that right-wing candidate Fujimori will secure Peru's presidency. She's likely to govern on a conservative, market-friendly platform, but her ability to push through... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE may not follow the crowd, Starmer playing defence An interest rate hold next Thursday looks nailed on and there are good reasons why the Bank of England may not join the central bank hiking club this year. Meanwhile, the political row over defence... 12th June 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2026) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.7% y/y in May keeps next week’s Copom meeting finely balanced between a hold and a 25bp cut. On balance, we think that the former is more likely. 12th June 2026 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (May 2026) India’s headline consumer price inflation picked up to a 15-month high of 3.9% y/y in May and further rises are going to follow. We think the RBI will start hiking interest rates soon. Consumer price... 12th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Suites of scenarios, models and European central banks The ECB's updated projections imply that at least one more interest rate hike will be necessary. But the absence of any clear guidance in yesterday's ECB press conference was arguably a dovish signal... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
