Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025)

We think the euro-zone economy will not grow at all in Q2 and Q3 as the first-quarter boost from tariff front-running will not be repeated. Looking through the tariff disruption, growth will be...

8th July 2025 · 1 min read

Event

Canada Drop-In: How far will the Bank of Canada go to support growth?

30th July 2025, 5:00PM BST

With the economy facing an elevated risk of recession, we expect the Bank of Canada to do its part and cut rates further.

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will resume easing cycle in August

While the Reserve Bank of Australia’s today defied widespread expectations of a rate cut, we still expect the Bank to resume its easing cycle at its August meeting. And with GDP growth still sluggish...

8th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (July 25)

8th July 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Tariff uncertainty may delay BoJ rate hikes until 2026

Our base case remains that Japan will reach a deal with the US to fend off the threatened 25% US tariff. If that deal is reached soon and includes no or only a modest increase in the US tariff rate...

8th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

The slightly more dovish communications accompanying the decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, and the easing in geopolitical risks, suggest that...

7th July 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Focus

Why the SARB will cut rates by more than most expect

We think there is a much larger negative output gap in South Africa’s economy than is widely assumed, which will keep inflation around 3%, rather than rise towards 4.5% as the Reserve Bank (SARB) and...

7th July 2025 · 12 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: SARB lower target and nationalisation, Ghana inflation

Data released this week showing a further decline in inflation expectations in South Africa provide further ammunition for those arguing that the time is right for the SARB’s inflation target to be...

4th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile’s communist candidate, Mexico’s weak economy

The victory for communist candidate, Jeannette Jara, in the Chilean governing coalition’s presidential primary election was received warmly by markets – her presence on the ballot is seen as...

4th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: NBP delivers dovish surprise, could the BoI be next?

The 25bp cut by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week caught many – but not us – off guard, and we think that two further interest rate cuts lie in store over the rest of this year. Meanwhile...

4th July 2025 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe Weekly: Could the euro’s strength prompt a July cut?

With the euro going from strength to strength and energy prices having dropped back the case could arguably be made for the ECB to cut rates in July and some policymakers have sounded concerned about...

4th July 2025 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Could the RBA stand pat next Tuesday?

Some observers have argued that the ongoing calm in global markets may prompt the RBA to leave rates unchanged at its 8th July meeting, given its preference to move in a cautious manner. However, we...

4th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Trade negotiations go down to the wire

The temporary pause on the 24% “reciprocal” tariff Trump imposed on imports from Japan in April is due to expire next week. As things stand, a deal with Japan looks unlikely and it’s possible that...

4th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Q1 data wrap up for Saudi Arabia and Egypt

The recent deterioration in Saudi Arabia’s current account deficit is likely to continue on the back of lower oil receipts. While large FX buffers will prevent major macro strains for now, the Kingdom...

3rd July 2025 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (June)

The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in June, to 35.0%, supports our view that the central bank will restart its easing later this month. We maintain our forecast for the one-week repo...

3rd July 2025 · 1 min read