Japan Economics Weekly Resilient activity data point to rate hike next month While the BoJ’s measures of underlying inflation were the weakest they’ve been in years in April, the recent surge in input costs due to the Iran War will result in a renewed strengthening. Indeed... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A June pause doesn’t mean the RBA is done hiking A string of soft April activity and inflation figures, alongside survey data showing firms dialling back their capex plans, will give the RBA room to leave rates on hold in June. However, we suspect... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hikes, but tightening cycle to be short The South African Reserve Bank hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% today as expected and, while it acknowledged that inflation risks are firmly to the upside, the Reserve Bank still looks likely to... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Rate hike likely as inflation and FX concerns build In contrast to the majority of analysts who are expecting no change, we think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will raise the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% at the conclusion of next week’s Monetary Policy... 28th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Peace talks, trade and capital flows Talks between the US and Iran have provided a glimmer of hope that global energy markets could begin to normalise. But the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have already inflicted heavy... 28th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update A hawkish hold, as Bank of Korea signals rate hikes coming The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, but clearly signalled that rate hikes were coming amid concerns about the inflationary impact of higher energy prices. We have adjusted... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (April 2026) The fall in household spending in April will give the RBA pause for thought, raising risks to our view that it will deliver one final 25bp hike in Q3. 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. High energy prices have given a boost to terms of trade in many Latin American... 27th May 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May 26) Higher energy prices will boost Angola and Nigeria’s economies. With elections on the horizon, governments are likely to spend their windfall. Most others in the region are having to manage worse... 27th May 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ set to hike rates in July The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold today came down to the wire, and it signalled that it would need to unwind its accommodative stance sooner rather than later. Accordingly, we’re bringing... 27th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (May 2026) The RBNZ narrowly voted to leave rates on hold today and it seems like a hike could come sooner than our current forecast of Q4. That said, with the output gap still deeply negative, the Bank doesn’t... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (April 2026) With price pressures somewhat contained for now, the RBA is all but certain to pause its tightening cycle in June. However, if we’re right that the rise in underlying inflation has further to run, the... 27th May 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India trip notes – heatwave, rupee, RBI and AI A week spent visiting clients and contacts in Delhi and Mumbai has underscored the extent to which the Middle East conflict is reverberating through the economy. Several of our discussions were... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) kept the base rate at 6.25% today, but weak price pressures and the rally in the forint suggest that the door has opened to easing, with a 25bp cut a possibility at the... 26th May 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could the BoJ lift rates into restrictive territory? The inflationary consequences of the Iran War have made us more confident in our view that the BoJ’s policy rate will climb to a neutral level of around 2% before long. However, the hurdles for the... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
