Bank of Canada Watch Softer data give BoC some breathing room The downside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth and limited passthrough of higher oil prices to core inflation so far gives the Bank of Canada scope to keep interest rates on hold again next week... 3rd June 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weathering the storm Past shocks – domestic and external – have tended to lead to large falls in Egypt’s currency and a sharp slowdown in growth. But the economy looks better placed to weather the current spillovers from... 3rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) While we suspect the labour market is too weak to generate big second-round effects, the inevitable rise in CPI inflation from 2.8% in April to a peak of 4.0% early next year under our baseline... 3rd June 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q1 2026) The weakness in the Q1 GDP print belies the fact that domestic demand was still growing at a healthy clip. Even so, it increasingly looks like the RBA won’t be in a rush to resume its tightening cycle... 3rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal, monetary policy to act as a shock absorber Higher crude oil revenues are likely to allow Ghana’s government to loosen fiscal policy which, taken together with the lagged impact of the large monetary easing cycle, should support the economy. We... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) Despite hawkish noises from the MPC, the recent softness in the inflation data mean that the central bank will likely hold off from hiking interest rates in the coming months. 2nd June 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing market correction is underway Australian house prices fell for a second straight month in May, and leading indicators suggest that the decline has further to run. However, with inflationary pressures still running hot, the housing... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2026/27 The strong increase in the minimum wage this year makes it more likely that wage growth will overshoot the RBA’s expectations, bolstering the case for additional policy tightening. 2nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank lending likely to slow soon Lending by euro-zone banks held up well in the first two months after the Iran war began. But with confidence low, market interest rates rising and the ECB set to start tightening monetary policy next... 1st June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Price pressures not yet raising alarm bells The latest communications from Fed officials have become increasingly hawkish. But the softer-than-expected outturn for the April core PCE deflator and the mounting downside risks to real consumption... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA food Inflation, Angola Eurobond, Nigeria GDP The South African Reserve Bank talked up inflation risks at its meeting this week, at which it hiked rates by 25bp, but the tightening cycle is likely to be modest. Elsewhere, Angola has tapped... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed a touch in April. That was entirely driven by weaker domestic demand – China’s exports continued to rise on the back of strong global... 29th May 2026 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Peaks in petrol prices and mortgage rates may be in the past The recent falls in oil prices and swap rates suggest that the peaks in petrol prices and mortgage rates may be behind us. While that doesn't mean inflation won't rise and the economy won't weaken... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly More pump price rises, RBI meeting, Q1 GDP Having not risen for the best part of four years, pump prices in India have now been hiked four times in the past two weeks, with both petrol and diesel prices now around 8% higher than they were at... 29th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish pivots, Turkey’s strains While most central banks are weighing whether to hike or hold, currency appreciation allowed the Bank of Israel to cut interest rates this week and the National Bank of Hungary to open the door to... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (May 2026) The fall in Polish inflation to 3.1% y/y in May – when most had expected a rise above 3.5% - suggests that underlying price pressures are softer than we had thought. In the last couple of weeks, it... 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
