Europe Economics Update

One step at a time for the Riksbank

Next Thursday, we expect the Riksbank to reduce its policy rate from 2.75% to 2.5% as it closes in on the end of its loosening cycle. In contrast, we think Norges Bank will leave its policy rate...

12th December 2024 · 5 mins read

BoE Watch

Economy not weak enough to trigger consecutive rate cuts

Despite the weak news on the domestic economy and the deterioration in the global outlook, we doubt the Bank of England will follow the ECB’s lead and cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next...

12th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Tide gradually turning at the ECB

Today’s ECB policy statement and press conference suggest that policymakers are increasingly confident of meeting their inflation goal and increasingly conscious of downside risks to the economy. We...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

The latest data have shown that China is benefitting from a pick-up in government spending, the US economy continues to grow at a decent pace, and other advanced economies had a soft start to Q4...

12th December 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

ECB Policy Announcement (December 2024)

While the ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate by 25bp was widely expected, the accompanying statement suggests that policymakers are less concerned than previously about upside risks to inflation...

12th December 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

China’s dovish policy shift may not be enough

The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference provides more detailed forward guidance on plans to adopt a more supportive policy stance next year – there will be more rate cuts and a...

12th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Will Brazil succumb to fiscal dominance?

The Brazilian central bank’s aggressive interest rate hike yesterday may help ease concerns that fiscal dominance will take hold. But we think that measures to keep government debt servicing costs...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify

Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks...

12th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths

Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2024)

This morning’s 50bp rate cut by the SNB, which brought the policy rate to 0.5%, came as a surprise to most economists though it was balanced by a revised policy statement which implies that...

12th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026

The outcome of the Bank’s upcoming meeting is highly uncertain but we still think that a 25bp rate hike is more likely than not. And with the yen set to remain weaker for longer and wage growth set to...

12th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

Brazil’s central bank stepped up the pace of tightening with a larger-than-expected 100bp hike, to 12.25%, to the Selic rate and made clear that there will be at least two more 100bp increases, to 14...

11th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The renewed acceleration in Russian inflation to 8.9% y/y in November, and likelihood of further increases in the coming months, argue strongly in favour of another large interest rate hike from the...

11th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank to revert to 25bp cuts

Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, its communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further cuts are...

11th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Fed Watch

Fed to continue with gradual policy normalisation

We expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and to continue projecting that the fed funds rate will eventually end up close...

11th December 2024 · 9 mins read