Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps

GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect...

11th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Canada Economics Update

How far will mortgage interest cost inflation fall?

While mortgage interest cost (MIC) inflation has historically turned negative during, or after, loosening cycles, we expect it to remain positive this time and rebound from 2026. This is because, in...

10th December 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Tracking the MPC’s thinking with our Bank of England Caseometer

Our new Bank of England Caseometer helps track whether the Bank is becoming more inclined to cut interest rates faster and further or slower and not as far. Our forecast is that rates will continue to...

10th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2024)

The further rise in Brazil’s inflation rate, to 4.9% y/y, in November alongside the weakness in the real and strong economic growth mean that Copom is nailed on to step up the pace of monetary...

10th December 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economic Outlook

Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy

Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls...

10th December 2024 · 18 mins read

India Economic Outlook

India Outlook: A tougher year ahead

After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major...

10th December 2024 · 16 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 26.5% y/y in October to 25.5% y/y in November and, with falls in the pound starting to fall out of the annual price comparison and global food and energy...

10th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will only cut interest rates in May

The RBA sounded more dovish today and it’s looking increasingly likely that it will lower interest rates sooner rather than later. While a downside surprise in Q4 inflation could trigger a February...

10th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2024)

10th December 2024 · 2 mins read

India Rapid Response

India’s government appoints new RBI governor

India’s government has just appointed Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). He will replace the Shaktikanta Das following six years at the helm. The...

9th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024)

The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y in November, combined with the relative resilience in the peso since the US election means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another...

9th December 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Politburo Meeting (Dec. 24)

The Politburo has just concluded its December meeting, which focuses foremost on economic affairs. After 14 years of monetary policy being officially characterised as “prudent”, the meeting readout...

9th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Is this a ‘vibecovery’?

Recent Bank of Canada communications have been keenly attuned to the downside risks to inflation and economic activity, concerns which seemed justified after last week’s disappointing GDP report...

6th December 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Inflation the last piece of the puzzle for the Fed

The data releases this week provided some support for our view that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp at its next meeting, rather than pause, although next week's price data will be the deciding...

6th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania election drama, rate cuts delayed across EE

The decision by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential election today after suggestions of Russian interference has been followed by a positive reaction in Romania...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read