Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZD and AUD likely to struggle over the rest of the year The high-beta Antipodean currencies had been the worst victims of global trade tensions but have fared better since early April, relative to their G10 peers, as global risk appetite steadily improved... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Despite the unexpected rise in CPI inflation in June, we still think the weakness in the labour market means it’s only a matter of time before wage growth and inflation slow to rates consistent with... 6th August 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate on hold at 5.50% and maintained its “neutral” policy stance today, despite India already being hit by a 25% US tariff with the potential for it to... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2025) With New Zealand’s labour market continuing to slacken in Q2, the RBNZ is all but certain push ahead with a 25bp cut at its meeting later this month. 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: Despite its cautious tone, RBA will cut rates to 2.85% With underlying inflation within striking distance of the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% target, the Board should have no qualms about cutting rates by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday. Although the Bank... 5th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Jun. 25) The strong pickup in household spending last quarter won’t keep the RBA from handing down a 25bp cut when it meets next Tuesday. Looking ahead, however, the data do suggest upside risks to our below... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (July) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in July, to 33.5% y/y, will encourage the central bank to continue its easing cycle next month. 4th August 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank still navigating uncertain terrain While the Bank of Canada maintained the same rationale for holding rates steady in July as it did in June, our initial reaction to the meeting’s communications was that the tone had shifted... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Payrolls move the narrative back in the doves’ favour The downside surprise to payrolls in July and significant downward revisions to May and June have left markets convinced that the Fed will cut in September, which is looking more likely but isn’t a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA, Mozambique and Ghana cut rates, US tariffs Central banks in Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa continued their monetary easing cycles this week, and the dovish tone of South Africa's meeting supports our below-consensus rate forecast... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s tariff resilience, exemptions for Chile & Brazil Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (July 2025) Headline inflation remained at the target in July and core inflation was only a touch higher. Both were broadly in line with the ECB’s forecasts. So there was little in the data to suggest that the... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade tensions unlikely to reduce wage growth much While the Bank of Japan became more upbeat about the outlook for inflation this week, it still thinks that trade tensions will result in a slower wage growth via lower corporate profits. However, with... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
