Global Economics Update Deciphering central banks’ muddled messages We recently hosted an online Drop-In to review the latest Fed, Bank of England and ECB decisions and what their communications imply. (Recording here.) This Update provides answers to the questions... 31st July 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Regional rightward shift, Copom’s final rate cut? Keiko Fujimori's initial steps as Peru’s president point towards improved relations with the US and tighter fiscal policy, but whether she can achieve the latter will depend on her ability to build... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Ueda opens door to September BoJ rate hike In response to Governor Ueda’s hawkish comments, we’re bringing forward our forecast for the next rate hike from October to September. That would imply a marked acceleration in the Bank’s tightening... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Jul. 26) While the BoJ left interest rates unchanged as widely anticipated, the accompanying Outlook report was hawkish and we’re sticking to our non-consensus view that the Bank will lift interest rates to 2%... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is done hiking rates Underlying inflation in Q2 didn’t pick up nearly as much as the RBA had expected. Although the path to disinflation is likely to be bumpy, we think the Bank will judge policy sufficiently restrictive... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (July 26) At around 3.2% y/y, China’s growth in Q2 was over 1%-pt weaker than official figures suggest. But growth has held steady in the face of the Iran war. Exports have continued to surge, largely driven by... 30th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2026) Global growth appears to be regaining momentum, led by the US among advanced economies. We expect this trend to continue, supported by strong AI investment despite the risk posed by renewed... 30th July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update BoE rate hikes may remain more a threat than a reality Even though the Bank of England again talked up the possibility of interest rate hikes while leaving rates at 3.75% today, we think rates are more likely to stay on hold this year and be cut to 3.00%... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q2 2026 Provisional) The larger-than-expected 1.5% q/q expansion in Mexico’s GDP partly reflected a recovery after Q1’s fall, and it won’t change the outcome of next week’s central bank meeting (a hold at 6.50% is all but... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (30th Jul. 2026) Even though the Bank of England continued to talk up the possibility of interest rate hikes while leaving rates at 3.75% today, we think rates are more likely to stay on hold this year and be cut to 3... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 26) The Politburo has just concluded its July meeting which, as usual, focused on economic affairs. The tone was less upbeat than the April meeting, presumably reflecting the deterioration in a number of... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed holds as markets struggle to get a handle on Warsh The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with almost zero changes to the statement, but three hawkish dissents from regional bank presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jul. 2026) The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with almost zero changes to the statement, but three hawkish dissents from regional bank presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth... 29th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Economic growth in the region has been resilient in the face of the energy shock, and we think growth will accelerate from here. Although inflation rose last month, most central banks will be able to... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July '26) The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will set back the nascent recoveries in the Gulf economies. And the downside risks to our forecast for a ~6%... 29th July 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2/June 2026) With underlying inflation surprising to the downside in Q2, the RBA is unlikely to feel an urgency to hike rates in the near term. 29th July 2026 · 2 mins read
