Asia Economics Update MAS to stay on hold despite hawkish tilt Singapore’s central bank kept monetary policy settings unchanged today but adopted a slightly more hawkish tone. While risks to the policy outlook are now skewed modestly towards tighter policy later... 29th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 2026) Brazil’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 15.00% as expected but the communications struck a much more dovish tone, suggesting that the first interest rate cut will be delivered at the next... 28th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to loosening bias despite stronger activity data The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is another sign that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jan 2026) The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is further evidence that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest... 28th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank in holding pattern awaiting CUSMA renegotiation The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB on the FX sidelines, but negative rates coming We do not think that the SNB has intervened in FX markets in recent days despite the Swiss franc’s large appreciation. Instead, we think policymakers are likely to combat any disinflationary pressure... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jan 2026) The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The macro implications of a weaker dollar Our base case is that the recent bout of weakness in the US dollar will reverse. If it remains at its current level, the direct macro impact is likely to be small for most countries, especially... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update MSCI threat adds to Indonesia’s woes The slump in Indonesia’s stock market today in the wake of a threat by MSCI to downgrade the country to “frontier market” status is the latest in a long list of issues that investors are grappling... 28th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB respond to the rising euro? The euro’s recent appreciation will reduce euro-zone inflation by a trivial amount, so for now the ECB is likely to do nothing to prevent it other than perhaps the mildest form of verbal intervention... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates in February and May The ongoing persistence in underlying inflation will persuade the Reserve Bank of Australia to reverse course on rate cuts. We expect the Bank to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, followed... 28th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2025) The sharper-than-expected rise in underlying inflation makes it all but certain that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates at its meeting next week. 28th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, gave no new guidance on the timing at which monetary easing may resume. But... 27th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 26) Sub-Saharan Africa is entering one of its best periods of growth since the 2010s, propelled by better terms of trade, low inflation and loose monetary policy. Our forecasts for most countries –... 27th January 2026 · 0 mins read
