Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (May) The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.50%, but we think that this may mark the end of its easing cycle. Our forecast for the policy rate to remain on hold at 3.50% over the... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Monetary easing alone won’t cut it Chinese policymakers have announced a raft of new monetary easing measures. These will help to shore up growth at the margin. But any boost to credit demand will be modest and today’s moves are no... 7th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could a stronger yen thwart further BoJ tightening? In current circumstances it would take a large strengthening of the yen to push inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. And with profit margins close to record highs, the hit from a stronger... 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: BanRep’s dovish shift, Copom nearing an end The unanimous decision by Colombia's central bank to lower its policy rate by 25bp, to 9.25%, earlier this week suggests that the Board is more dovish than we’d thought. That will raise fears, similar... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney should find support for stimulus despite minority Although Mark Carney’s Liberal Party just missed out on a majority in the election this week, the conciliatory tones from the Bloc Québécois suggest that the government should find the support needed... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: UK rates to be cut slower but perhaps further than investors expect The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% on Thursday 8th May. But we think the markets have got ahead of themselves in expecting interest rates to be cut by... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: A close call in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia has so far held off on rate cuts, but with first quarter growth slowing sharply, inflation at a four-year low, and external risks mounting, we expect the central bank to begin its... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (April 2025) April’s rise in services inflation is unlikely to worry the ECB too much as it was probably driven mainly by Easter timing effects. We think services inflation will start falling again in the coming... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Inflation risks remain two-sided, Labor leads in polls With underlying inflation having returned to its 2-3% target range in Q1, the RBA is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting later this month. However, given that timely data point to... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia April Manufacturing PMIs The April PMIs for Asia fell sharply, providing the first sign that Trump tariffs are weighing on sentiment in the region. With concerns about growth mounting and inflation worries continuing to ease... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Bank of Japan too downbeat about inflation outlook The Bank of Japan slashed its GDP growth forecasts this week, arguing that global trade tensions are weighing on sentiment of households and firms. While consumer confidence has indeed plunged... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank & Norges Bank to hold, downside risks rising Headwinds are gathering for the Swedish economy, and we expect the Riksbank to strike a dovish tone in its statement next week. But it will probably stop short of cutting the policy rate as it waits... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The BoJ, JGB yields and the risk of capital repatriation Despite the Bank of Japan’s dovish tone today we think it won’t be long before JGB yields start to rise again. And even though concerns about Japanese capital repatriation have seemingly been back on... 1st May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates again before long The Bank of Japan revised down its growth forecasts and sounded more dovish when it left policy settings unchanged today. However, we believe that the Bank has become far too downbeat about the... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Fed won’t cave to Trump pressure A contraction in GDP and near-flatlining in core PCE prices would usually be more than enough to persuade policymakers at the Fed to cut interest rates. Since those data precede the implementation of... 30th April 2025 · 7 mins read
