Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn will prevent further RBA tightening With the RBA still sounding hawkish, investors think that another rate hike over the coming months is more likely than not. However, we are reluctant to bet against history as the Bank has rarely... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stars are aligning for a September BoJ hike The Bank of Japan’s July Summary of Opinions suggests that the Board is increasingly open to stepping up the pace of tightening. With producer and import-price data pointing to persistent and broad... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran economy under pressure, Egypt rate cuts coming US efforts to squeeze the Iranian economy via the blockade are having some effect, but it remains uncertain whether this will be enough to result in larger concessions from the Iranian regime... 13th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s inflation outlook still benign South Africa’s inflation figures for July, due next Wednesday, are likely to show a temporary drop (probably to 4.3%) and the headline rate is likely to rise back to around 5% by early 2027. But we... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Why are Brazil’s government borrowing costs so high? Media reports point to renewed scrutiny in Brazil over whether the central bank’s widely watched economic survey is pushing up public sector borrowing costs. But the key issue is that Brazil’s real... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jul. 2026) The drop in Brazilian inflation in July, to 4.4% y/y, leaves the door open for the central bank to continue its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its next meeting in September. 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery to be hampered by lending slowdown Private sector credit growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed sharply over the past year and we think it’s likely to act as a headwind to the recovery in non-oil sectors from the Iran war. 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA retains hawkish bias, but next move will be a cut While the RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged today was widely expected, the Board took pains to reiterate that it remains prepared to tighten policy further if needed. However, despite its tough... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 2026) The RBA predictably left rates unchanged at its meeting today.While the Board continued to talk tough on inflation, we don’t believe that it will go as far as to hike rates again this cycle. 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Softer wage growth will comfort the Fed We would not read too much into the fall in payrolls in July, but the lack of wage pressures clearly reduces the need for the Fed to raise rates soon unless the price data next week deliver a big... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly What next for BanRep?, Argentina’s China ties One immediate macro impact of the change of government in Colombia later today will be on monetary policy, and a more hawkish central bank stance is on the cards in the near term. Elsewhere, the... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana soft inflation, Nigeria’s military get spending boost Ghana’s surprisingly soft inflation print for July suggests that another rate cut is possible, but robust growth and the BoG’s drive to build its credibility and stabilise the cedi mean we still think... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK hawkish as inflation eases across Asia Inflation in Korea fell in August, but hawkish minutes from the BOK’s July meeting suggest that further tightening is likely. While it will be a close call, we expect the next hike to come in October... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FX Intervention won’t fix Japan’s credibility problem Joint US-Japan intervention provided some initial support to the yen. However, the currency has since given back some of its gains, and we don’t believe official purchases can substitute for a... 7th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market will give RBNZ pause for thought New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose more sharply last quarter than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had anticipated and leading indicators suggest that it will remain high for now. Accordingly, we... 7th August 2026 · 4 mins read
