Europe Economics Weekly New French PM, German “autumn of reform” Hints by France’s new prime minister that he will water down plans for budget cuts emphasise that meaningful fiscal tightening in the coming years is very unlikely and support our view that French... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Springtime in the Antipodes New business surveys suggest that economic momentum in Australia will remain solid through the second half of the year. However, we would caution that these surveys have recently overstated the... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will resume tightening this year While trade tensions have started to weigh on Japan’s exports, the wider economy has shrugged off these headwinds. With inflation still running hot, we expect the Bank of Japan to leave the door open... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) A recession should just about be avoided, but the economy is teetering on the edge. We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate... 11th September 2025 · 0 mins read
BoE Watch No more cuts this year, but rates to fall to 3.00% next year The Bank of England will leave interest rates at 4.00% at its policy meeting on Thursday 18th September, but may announce a bigger scaling back of quantitative tightening (QT) than most expect. Our... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold, for now The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was in line with expectations. The Bank is unlikely to change interest rates again... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank to slow the pace of easing to 250bp didn’t come as a major surprise but the fairly hawkish communications support our view that real interest rates are likely to... 11th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will wait before cutting again Norges Bank signalled last month that it would cut interest rates later this year, but we expect it to leave policy unchanged next week. It will probably reduce interest rates before year-end, but any... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Labour market slump to prompt BoC to resume cuts Officials indicated in July that they could support further interest rate cuts if the labour market continued to soften. That is exactly what has happened since, while the upside risks to inflation... 10th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Weak labour demand forces Fed off the sidelines Easing labour market conditions mean the FOMC is set to vote for a 25bp cut next week, lowering the fed funds target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, although a rare triple dissent in favour of a... 10th September 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be... 10th September 2025 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The threat to central bank independence in EMs Threats to central bank independence in the emerging world are, thankfully, rare at the moment (Indonesia is one current point of concern though). However, efforts to undermine independence would... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2025) The small fall in inflation in Brazil, to 5.1% y/y in August, is unlikely to change the central bank’s tone at its meeting next week. Interest rates will remain on hold at 15.00%. But with inflation... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economic resilience amid US tariff hit After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 10th September 2025 · 17 mins read
