Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The manufacturing PMI climbed to a four-year high in January and suggests that the economic expansion remained vigorous at the start of this year. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending suffers as inflation peaks December’s retail sales figures were pretty disappointing, suggesting that the sector grew by 0.4% in Q4 as a whole, half of Q3’s 0.8% rate. What’s more, growth in non-retail spending is likely to... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi inflation remained subdued at the end of last year but the recent introduction of a new value-added tax and a raft of administered price hikes will push inflation up sharply, to more than 6% y/y... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Exchange rates to diverge as Swedish krona rises Prospects for the Nordic economies and Switzerland are strong, but there are divergent outlooks for monetary policy. In Sweden, inflation is already close to the Riksbank’s target and, with capacity... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring the... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes likely to be undone before long The Bank of Canada’s upgraded GDP growth forecast for this year looks overly optimistic given NAFTA and housing-related risks. Despite further increases in household borrowing costs and tougher new... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Oil at $70 won’t result in policy tightening We expect the price of Brent crude oil to moderate from $70 per barrel to $55 by the end of 2018. But even if global oil prices remain close to current levels, inflation in Japan would only average 1%... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the strong end to 2017 a sign of things to come? Economic figures released in recent weeks have been notably stronger than expected, suggesting that the Australian economy had plenty of momentum going into the start of this year. But we doubt this... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation could be the big story in 2018 The stronger 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in December provided clearer evidence that the forces weighing on core inflation last year are now firmly in reverse. Admittedly, core CPI inflation... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the Fed abandon inflation targeting? In the long run we suspect the Fed will move away from rules-based inflation targeting and shift to a more discretionary regime that focuses on financial stability as well as price stability and full... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Sustained upturn need not prompt ECB rate hikes The euro-zone’s impressive upturn looks set to continue apace as reduced political uncertainty, high levels of business confidence, and continued strong policy support allow investment to take off... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to become more dovish With consumer price inflation set to rise gradually, but house prices falling, we think that the Norges Bank will reiterate next week that interest rates will not rise until the autumn. We suspect... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary’s MPC keep the bond market rally going? Hungary’s central bank has started two new policies this week aimed at bringing down bond yields, including the first QE programme in an emerging market. But there are reasons to think that the impact... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan to keep policy loose this year Speculation that the Bank of Japan is about to increase its yield target has pushed the yen higher. However, we think that policy tightening remains a distant prospect and that the yen will weaken as... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price pressures strengthening again Inflation climbed to a fresh high in November and mounting capacity shortages suggest that price pressures will strengthen further. However, most of the recent increase has been driven by higher... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) The fall-back in CPI inflation from 3.1% in November to 3% in December probably marks the beginning of what we expect will be a sustained downward trend over the course of 2018. Despite this, we still... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
