UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC about to shorten its horizon? We have long-argued that interest rates would rise somewhat faster, and sooner, than markets expecting. Recent comments by Governor Carney offer tentative support to this view and suggest that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Slicing and dicing inflation Whichever way you look at it, there is very little evidence that the health of the economy is starting to boost inflation in Australia. Out of our six key charts that take a deep dive into the latest... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report could strike more hawkish tone With the data continuing to surprise the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the upside and the Governor sounding encouraged by progress in Brexit negotiations and a bit more upbeat on the outlook... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation largely reflected energy effects, so won’t be a major concern to the ECB. But December’s labour market data emphasise that there is still slack in the labour... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence January’s GfK/NOP confidence survey suggested that consumers started the year in fairly good spirits. And with real earnings likely to recover in the second half of this year, there is scope for... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q4) It is possible that price pressures are a little stronger than the CPI data for the fourth quarter suggest. But the main message is that inflation is still hovering just below the 2-3% target and it... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jan.) January’s fall in German inflation partly reflected energy effects, and the rate is likely to rise again in the months ahead. But with core inflation still subdued in Germany and significantly weaker... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook No rush to raise rates 2018 will be the first year this century that the Australian economy won’t benefit from either a mining or housing boom. In those circumstances, we doubt that GDP growth will rise above 2.5%. And... 28th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie a key beneficiary of US dollar’s malaise The Canadian dollar hit 81 cents against the US dollar earlier this week but, rather than blaming the loonie’s rally on the Bank of Canada and its recent interest rate hike, the rebound appears to be... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The gradual strengthening in core inflation evident in December’s consumer price figures would seem to justify the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to raise interest rates again. 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation excluding fresh food remained close to 1% in December. But with wage growth still sluggish and the tailwind from higher energy prices set to fade, inflation won’t rise any further. 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) For all the talk about how the incoming Governor will deal with employment being added to the RBNZ’s mandate, the latest data suggest he may spend most of his time wondering why inflation is so low. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Industry hits a sweet spot The latest data suggest that India’s industrial sector has strengthened significantly in recent months, underlining that any disruption from the introduction of the GST in mid-2017 was short-lived... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) South African inflation edged up to 4.7% in December, but we expect that price pressures will ease in 2018. The next interest rate move will be a cut, though we think this will come after a long pause... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions simmer as China-US surplus widens China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US rose in 2017 to a record high of US$275bn according to Chinese data. President Trump, according to the White House, stressed his “disappointment” with this... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
