Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation to remain muted Global bond markets have been shaken by the recent run of stronger wage and price inflation figures in the US. Although we have long expected that a rebound in core inflation south of the border would... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to drift higher We expect inflation in Brazil to drift higher in the coming months, reaching just over 4% y/y by the end of this year. This won’t cause a major headache for policymakers but, despite the dovish tone... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US inflation not (yet) a big threat to EM economies Concerns about rising inflation pressures in the US have sent shockwaves through EM financial markets over the past week or so, but the economic fallout is likely to be limited. A sharp and sustained... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Headline wholesale price inflation eased in January, but stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose last month. With reasons to think that core... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rates cuts not far off Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left rates on hold today but, in contrast to the consensus, we think that rate cuts will come onto the agenda soon. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.1% in January, but the bigger story was the broad-based 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices. In three-month annualised terms, core inflation climbed to a... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why are regional banks’ capital ratios falling? If the Bank of Japan were to reverse course on monetary loosening in the near future, it would more likely be a response to worries about financial stability than high inflation. The recent... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4) & CPI (Jan.) Q4’s 0.6% rise in German GDP marked a decent finish to 2017 and growth looks set to accelerate again this year. But with inflation and wage growth still subdued in the euro-zone’s largest and arguably... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook MPC to respond to robust growth with more rate hikes Having barely slowed in 2017, contrary to predictions of a substantial negative impact from the Brexit vote, we think that the economy will defy renewed expectations of a slowdown this year. Amid... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is inflation about to take off? One explanation for the recent slump in equity and bond prices is that investors have become concerned that inflation is about to take off, forcing central bankers to tighten policy more rapidly than... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) Despite holding steady in January, we continue to think that CPI inflation will gradually drift downwards over the course of 2018. However, we still think that the Monetary Policy Committee will raise... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017 The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due later this week is likely to show that the region’s economies continued to grow at a rapid pace at the end of 2017, at around 5.3% y/y... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss and Danish Consumer Prices (Jan.) Following January’s decline, there is little chance that Swiss inflation will rise much in the next few months. And later in the year, inflation is likely to drop back as exchange rate effects unwind. 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Budget deal raises risks further ahead The budget deal will raise federal spending this year by as much as 0.7% of GDP, providing an extra fiscal stimulus to an economy already boosted by the recent tax cuts. While that will mean 2018 is a... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy’s economy really booming? With three weeks to go before Italy’s election, the latest surveys suggest that the economy is performing very well. But the official data paint a less rosy picture. On balance, we think that GDP will... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Market turmoil won’t derail expansion The recent sell-off on the stock market would have to continue for much longer before it started to have a major effect on consumer spending in Japan. And with the yen barely changed, the impact on... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
