Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb) & Current Account (Q4 2017) Weaker South African inflation (which slowed to 4.0% y/y in February) will add to calls for an interest rate cut this month. But we think that pending VAT hikes and a widening current account deficit... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sluggish wage growth to prevent BoJ from tightening We wouldn’t read too much into the early results of this year’s spring wage negotiations, which showed that the large carmakers and electronic firms lifted base pay by less than in 2014 and 2015. But... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank edging towards tighter policy Following the recent reduction in its inflation target, the Norges Bank now clearly expects to begin raising interest rates this year. However, we think that it will tighten monetary policy more... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Polish inflation figure for February, of 1.4% y/y, means that the MPC is likely to stick to its dovish tone in the very near-term. However, we still think that price pressures... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Only tentative signs of higher inflation We expect the inflation rate in the G7 economies to average less than 2% this year and next. This is partly because average earnings growth has remained weaker than might have been expected given the... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) With Swedish inflation unchanged at a joint 10-month low in February, we see the Riksbank changing its forward guidance next month to signal that it will raise interest rates later than it previously... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) Slower inflation and a political breakthrough have opened the way to interest rate cuts in Nigeria. We expect that policymakers will lower their key rate from 14.00% to 13.00% in Q2. 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Headline wholesale price inflation edged down in February. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose accelerated month. With reasons to... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Expansion has become shakier Revised GDP figures confirmed that the economic recovery continued apace in Q4. However, the more recent monthly activity data suggest that the longest period of uninterrupted expansion since the late... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Core consumer prices increased by a solid 0.2% m/m in February, extending the run of firmer monthly gains and pushing the three-month annualised core inflation rate up to a decade high of 3.1%... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: rising inflation to prompt further rate hikes The rise in Romanian inflation – which hit a five-year high last month – appears to have been driven by rapid wage growth and provides further signs that the economy is overheating. As a result, we... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) The drop in consumer price inflation in February was due to another decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation remains high and could well rise further. As such, we remain comfortable with our... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation in Brazil came in as expected in February, but its failure to pick up over the past couple of months gives Copom the green light to lower interest rates again later this month. We now expect... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen strength another stumbling block for BoJ The yen would have to strengthen much further before it turns into a major drag on export competitiveness and corporate profits. However, the recent appreciation should bring the pick-up in goods... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) Consumer price inflation rose sharply last month after a fall in January, boosted by a New Year-driven rebound in food price inflation. We think a further rise in food inflation will keep the headline... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further drop in Mexican inflation in February was encouraging, and the breakdown contains signs of broad disinflation pressures – core inflation posted its biggest decline in over three years. The... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
