Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that growth slowed last quarter. Nonetheless, staff shortages have continued to intensify and price pressures are strengthening. 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Tokyo CPI (Mar.) The rebound in industrial production in February wasn’t strong enough to prevent a slump in output last quarter and we reiterate our forecast that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, the labour market... 30th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Core PCE inflation to hit 2% very soon Although the annual core PCE inflation rate only edged higher to 1.6% in February there is now a good chance that base effects will push it up to 2.0% in March, leaving it in line with the Fed’s... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s increase in German consumer price inflation reflected a rebound in the volatile food and energy components. The headline rate remains low, at 1.5%, and there is still limited evidence of a... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bounce back in activity unlikely Both the Australian and New Zealand economies failed to regain any momentum at the end of 2017 with GDP rising by a slower than expected 0.6% q/q in New Zealand and just 0.4% q/q in Australia... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish stance of Hungary’s MPC missing the bigger picture The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary continued to strike a dovish tone which, given the recent run of weak inflation data, isn’t a surprise. But the softness of inflation has been... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the BoJ abandon its 2% inflation target? Five years after Governor Kuroda embarked on aggressive policy easing, core inflation in Japan is still barely positive and the Bank of Japan seems to have run out of ideas on how to push it higher... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What causes recessions? An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional growth stays strong in Q1 The latest activity figures suggest that Emerging Europe’s strong economic performance continued in the early months of this year. Russia’s recovery has resumed following a slowdown in the second half... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The rise in the annual headline and core inflation rates in February appear to be largely due to higher gasoline inflation and base year effects, things which the Bank of Canada will look through at... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Underlying inflation climbed to a 20-month high in February but the recent strengthening of the exchange rate suggests that it won’t rise much further. 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of March was broad-based, and we expect it to continue easing over the course of this year. The data support our view – which the markets appear... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines central bank to look through inflation spike The Philippines central bank (BSP) decision to leave rates on hold today, despite this year’s jump in inflation, adds weight to our view that policy will remain on hold throughout 2018. This stands in... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weak spending growth just a blip The latest data indicate that GDP growth was no more than 2.5% annualised in the first quarter, with real consumption growth slowing to around 2%. That would hardly be a disaster, but is disappointing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 2.9% y/y last month but it remained much higher than the rates recorded in late-2017 due to the impact of recent tax hikes and subsidy cuts. We expect inflation... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) The fall-back in CPI inflation in February from 3% in January to 2.7% confirms that we have now reached a turning point, but doesn’t significantly diminish the case for a near-term interest rate hike. 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
