Asia Economics Weekly Rates hikes coming in the Philippines, markets resilient Rising inflationary pressures in the Philippines mean the country’s central bank is likely to raise interest rates by 50bp at its meeting next week. Bank Indonesia is also likely to raise rates, but... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) Underlying inflation climbed to a four-month high in August and should pick up further ahead of next year’s sales tax hike. But price pressures will weaken once the tax has been raised and the BoJ’s 2... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon fears escalate, Saudi happy with $80pb oil The sharp widening in Lebanese dollar bond spreads this week suggests that investors are increasingly fearful that the country is lurching towards an economic crisis and, in the event of a fresh... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank preparing the ground for tightening The statement that accompanied the Brazilian Central Bank’s meeting last night provided the first clear sign that it is preparing to tighten monetary conditions, with the first rate hike likely to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil prices likely to fall and drag down inflation We have revised up our forecast for the price of Brent crude, but still expect it to fall in the coming year or so, helping to reduce headline inflation. However, we don’t expect this to have much... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the Turkish central bank shifting back to orthodoxy? Last week’s aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey has reduced the risk of a more acute balance of payments crisis and helped to restore some of the central bank’s (CBRT) damaged credibility. But the... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why rate hikes in Thailand would be a bad idea The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of accompanying statement suggests that rate hikes are in the pipeline. With inflationary pressures very... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation came as a bit of a nasty surprise, but it does not alter our view that inflation will be back at the 2% target by this time next year. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation slowed to 4.9% in August, which supports our view that policymakers at the SARB will leave their key rate on hold at 6.50% at their meeting tomorrow. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack GDP growth set to slow The Swiss and Nordic economies generally performed well in Q2, but most of the timelier survey indicators point to slower growth to come. Switzerland’s economy expanded very strongly in the first half... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade war set to escalate The US appears to be on the verge of expanding its tariffs to cover a total of $250bn of Chinese goods, the production of which generates 1.3% of China’s GDP. The proposed $200bn tariff list includes... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Some signs of building price pressures Following a long period of tightening labour markets, wage pressures are mounting, and we think this will lead to a gradual pick-up in average earnings growth. Core inflation rate will probably rise... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Stronger dollar will hold back exports The economy remains strong, with the fiscal stimulus still providing a big boost but, looking beyond headline GDP growth, there are signs that rising interest rates and the resurgent dollar are... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB hawkish, Zambia’s debt troubles There are growing suggestions that the South African Reserve Bank will raise interest rates at its meeting next week, but the weakness of the latest activity data and of inflation expectations mean we... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Diaspora to the rescue? The continued weakness of the rupee has triggered speculation this week that policymakers are about to adopt special measures to shore up the currency. One possibility is the reintroduction of a... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Although CPIF inflation was above target in August, the further decline in non-energy inflation will worry the Riksbank. If it remains soft, then the Bank will probably keep rates on hold until early... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
