Europe Economics Update Inflation will rise this year, but remain very low Euro-zone core inflation is likely to rise this year as the temporary VAT cut in Germany expires and last year’s sharp falls in holiday and clothing prices are reversed. However, the inflation rate... 6th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Dec.) Swiss inflation is likely to climb out of deflationary territory over the coming months. However, it is still set to remain very weak over the coming years, and does not change the picture for the SNB... 5th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Stimulus another reason for optimism about 2021 The additional $900bn stimulus that looks likely to be passed by Congress within the next day or two means that we are raising our GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.5%, from 5.0%. 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Central banks to look through higher inflation Energy price base effects will drive up inflation in the first half of 2021, but central banks will look through this. Indeed, in most cases, inflation should be around or below target over the second... 17th December 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but challenges still lie ahead Daily new COVID-19 infections have levelled off or fallen in most parts of Central Europe and there are signs that activity has started to rebound. But the fresh rise in new cases this month in... 17th December 2020 · 16 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank plotting (gradual) path back to normality As was widely expected, the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at zero this morning. However, it brought forward the projected start of rate hikes and signalled that it will retighten... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Nov.) The breakdown of November inflation showed that falling prices for tourism-related services remain a major drag on headline and core inflation, which were unrevised from the flash estimates. Looking... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccines too late to prevent bleak winter There is now clear evidence that the continued surge in COVID-19 infections and restrictions imposed to control its spread are once again weighing on the economy, with employment growth slowing... 16th December 2020 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The higher-than-expected rate of inflation in November was mainly a statistical quirk resulting from continued difficulties in collecting price data for travel tours. The same effect could cause... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp fall in inflation from 0.7% in October to 0.3% in November (consensus 0.6%) and in the core rate from 1.5% to 1.1% came as a bit of a surprise. However, some of these moves were driven by... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp fall in inflation from 0.7% in October to 0.3% in November (consensus 0.6%) and in the core rate from 1.5% to 1.1% came as a bit of a surprise. However, some of these moves were driven by... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus Our key calls for 2021 The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India will brighten the economic outlook next year, but India’s recovery will still be one of the weakest among major economies. One consequence is... 16th December 2020 · 10 mins read
India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Nov.) The rise in headline wholesale price inflation in November was driven by a further acceleration in core inflation but this could go into reverse soon, especially if a COVID-19 vaccine is successfully... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie flies despite Bank’s pledge to keep yields low The Canadian dollar jumped to a two-year high this week and, despite the pledge from the Bank of Canada that it will keep rates low across the yield curve, we think there is still scope for further... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
