Africa Economics Update Kenya: Weaker inflation points to rate cut Today’s inflation figures support our view that policymakers will cut their key rate in July. Meanwhile, the rebate surrounding Kenya’s lending rate cap suggests that the controversial law will be... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Three more Fed hikes this year, ECB and BoJ on hold Despite economic activity slowing in Q1, we expect the Fed to press on with three more rate hikes this year, not least because inflation has been higher than anticipated in recent months. But in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Apr.) German HICP inflation dipped from 1.5% to 1.4% in April as increases in energy and food inflation were offset by a fall in the core rate. While the latter partly reflected temporary effects, the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s easing cycle probably at an end The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate on Friday night by 25bp (to 4.25%) probably marks the last move in the easing cycle. We expect the policy rate to be left... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals rate cuts still on the cards, despite ruble sell-off The sell-off in the ruble caused the Russian central bank (CBR) to pause its easing cycle today, but the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that rates are likely to be lowered... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update 2% inflation target remains out of reach The Bank of Japan today refrained from providing a concrete timeframe for hitting its 2% inflation target for the first time since Governor Kuroda took over. This highlights that policymakers have... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Tokyo CPI (Apr.) The slump in industrial production last quarter suggests that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, price pressures have started to moderate again even though the labour market remains very tight. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to keep guidance unchanged, for now The Norges Bank is unlikely to respond to recent weak data by altering its forward guidance next week. But we still think that it will ultimately tighten policy a little more slowly than generally... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shrugs off softness in euro-zone The latest data suggest that, while GDP growth in Central Europe has now peaked, it remained strong at 4.5-5.0% y/y in Q1. That came in spite of a raft of softer activity and survey figures from key... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Rising inflation will prompt faster tightening this year The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. But with signs that underlying inflationary pressures are continuing to build, officials may use the post-meeting statement... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households already being squeezed by higher rates Consumption growth was the key driver behind the Canadian economy’s recent strength, particularly in the first half of last year. Since mid-2017, however, retail sales volumes have largely stagnated... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: BCRA turns hawkish, policy to stay tight Argentina’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 27.25% last night, but the statement accompanying the decision struck a notably more hawkish tone and suggested that the easing... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The larger-than-expected drop in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month reinforces our view that the next move in interest rates will be down. That said, the recent slide in the peso – if... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Saudi inflation edged down to 2.8% y/y last month, although it was still much higher than the rates recorded last year due to the impact of tax hikes and subsidy cuts. The early evidence suggests that... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Growing less optimistic Despite underlying inflation coming in slightly stronger than the Reserve Bank of Australia expected in the first quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave interest rates at 1.5% at its next policy... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
