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Consumer Price Index (Jul.)

The jump in headline inflation to 3.0% in July, from June’s 2.5%, was partly due to rising energy prices but also appeared to reflect a pick-up in general inflationary pressures. We think that the Bank of Canada’s commitment to take “a gradual approach” means that back-to-back interest rate rises are unlikely, but we do now expect an interest rate hike in October.

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