India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) Even though in the first quarter underlying inflation essentially rose back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time in two years, we doubt this means that the RBA will raise interest... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy tightening remains a long way off The unusual strength of wage growth in Japan has attracted attention recently. But the main development at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting is likely to be another reduction in the Board’s forecast... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will softer EM inflation trigger interest rate cuts? The recent string of weak inflation data released across EMs has been due largely to a drop in food inflation and, while we think that many central banks will look through this, policymakers in some... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The manufacturing PMI suggests that activity in the sector remains healthy but firms are getting increasingly concerned about the outlook for external demand. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The headline CPI inflation rate edged up to a three-year high of 2.3% in March, from 2.2%, but the Bank of Canada will be relieved to see that its new core inflation measures remained largely... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr.) The weak Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for April, coming alongside the stabilisation of the real in the past few days, means COPOM is likely to go ahead with another 25bp reduction in the Selic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Slowdown on the horizon Despite some weakness in the first quarter, and concerns about protectionism, global economic growth is likely to hold up well this year. In advanced economies, the outlook for investment and... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Low inflation continues to haunt New Zealand Looking past the temporary dip in inflation in the first quarter, which was partly driven by government decisions, there have been some encouraging signs about the outlook for inflation in New Zealand... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Policy tightening still a distant prospect The tight labour market is now boosting wage growth but not by enough to generate significant inflation. With the economy likely to slow this year, the Bank of Japan won’t be able to tighten policy... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight upside risks to inflation The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s April policy meeting show that, despite the recent drop in headline inflation, the MPC is still concerned about the upside risks to the outlook. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation ended the last fiscal year well below the Bank of Japan’s forecast for the current fiscal year and the Bank will have to lower its projections yet again. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Economy to withstand higher interest rates We maintain our relatively optimistic view about the prospects for UK economic growth over the next few years. In particular, a recovery in real earnings should help household spending growth to... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The fall back in CPI inflation towards the bottom of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range in the first quarter was partly due to government decisions rather than economic forces, but it nonetheless highlights... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Slow start to the year not a sign of things to come While the latest data suggest that the European economies made a weak start to the year, we do not see this as the start of a serious slowdown. The euro-zone in particular has more spare capacity than... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth slowed in Q1 Today’s retail figures show that consumer spending was robust in Q1. The comparison with a very strong result in Q4 will depress q/q GDP growth this quarter, but we don’t think that this marks a... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
