Japan Data Response Tokyo CPI (May) The continued moderation in inflation in the capital region underlines that the Bank of Japan won’t be able to tighten monetary policy anytime soon. 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Hawkish tone, but rates on hold for now South African policymakers, who left their key rate at 6.50% today, struck a hawkish tone. Though inflation will pick up this year, a hike is unlikely. We think the next move will be a small cut in... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) The recent rise in oil prices did not stop CPI inflation from taking another step down in April. But we doubt that inflation’s fall significantly reduces the chance of an interest rate hike in the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: near-term outlook is bright Egypt’s economy has weathered the fallout from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016 and, as fiscal consolidation slows and inflation and interest rates drop back, growth should remain robust over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) South African inflation edged up to 4.5% y/y in April, following a VAT hike at the start of the month. Taking that together with the recent fall in the rand, we think that the MPC will leave interest... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP still in strong position despite Karnataka setback The BJP’s failure to form a coalition despite winning by far the most seats in the Karnataka state election is a setback for the ruling national party, with the main opposition Congress and the local... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the Bank of Japan finally winning? On some measures, Japan has been the strongest performing large developed economy over recent years. Growth has been unusually fast, unemployment is at historic lows and wage growth at two-decade... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) Even though the manufacturing PMI fell to a fresh low in May, we still think that the economy returned to growth this quarter. Meanwhile, the recent strength in crude oil prices is boosting price... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers hold off, will cut later this year A surprisingly hawkish MPC statement suggest that Nigerian policymakers (who held their key rate at 14.00% today) will keep rates on hold for most of this year. But they will still probably cut rates... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising inflation expectations weaken the doves' case The recent rebound in inflation expectations is significant not only because it provides another reason to expect core inflation to trend higher this year, but also because it further weakens the case... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) The firming in core inflation and the new-found strength of retail sales will increase speculation that the Bank of Canada is going to increase interest rates again later this year. Our view is still... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Most of the slowdown in inflation in April was driven by volatile fresh food prices. But the moderation in underlying inflation underlines that the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target remains out of... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Why hasn’t rapid wage growth pushed up inflation? Rapid wage growth in Central Europe has yet to feed into a meaningful pick-up in inflation. Part of the softness of Central European inflation reflects weak price pressures in the euro-zone. But it... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Markets tumble with Iran’s nuclear deal on the brink Financial markets in the Middle East & North Africa have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world over the past week following President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) With wage growth stuck in the mud at 2.1% in the first quarter and likely to stay there or thereabouts for a while yet, the prospect of an interest rate rise next year has diminished further. It also... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world now less sensitive to oil prices? Oil price movements have big effects on individual economies, companies and assets. But we suspect that their impact on aggregate global demand is smaller now than it was a decade or two ago. This is... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
