Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further drop in Mexican inflation last month reinforces our view that the tightening cycle is over and that the next move in interest rates will be down. In contrast, the markets have responded to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Norway, Switzerland CPI (Apr.) Easter timing effects distorted April’s inflation data. Looking ahead, inflationary pressure is building in Sweden and, to a lesser extent, in Norway. Inflation is much more subdued in Switzerland. 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) The surge in base pay in March underlines that the tight labour market is now generating noticeable cost pressures. However, it will still take a few more years before wage growth is strong enough to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to resume accelerating Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Core price pressures are also continuing to build. We are one of only a handful of forecasters... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Another first-quarter blip The weakness in advanced economies early this year, which was largely driven by softer household spending, looks like a temporary setback rather than anything more ominous. Admittedly, economic growth... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How far will inflation overshoot? We learned this week that core PCE inflation reached 1.9% in March, within a whisker of the Fed’s 2% target, and we think it has further to rise over the rest of this year. We expect a gradual pick-up... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Russian inflation figure for April, of 2.4% y/y, supports our view that the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates last week was just a pause in the easing cycle. We... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Interest rates to rise as inflation concerns mount A further rise in inflation in April and more hawkish comments from policymakers suggest the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) is likely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting on Thursday... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation has peaked Consumer price inflation will probably have edged down further in April following a spike in February that took the headline rate to the highest since 2013. We think inflation will be broadly stable... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & PPI (Mar.) April’s unexpected fall in inflation partly reflected Easter timing effects, providing some hope that it will prove temporary. But with underlying price pressures subdued, the ECB will continue to... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) Today’s stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation data will add to fears that the economy is overheating and strengthens the case for the MPC to hike interest rates further over the coming months. 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on course for next rate hike in June The Fed was never likely to signal a major shift in policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at 1.5% to 1.75% and the accompanying statement... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries vulnerable even if inflation worries ease More than half of the 80bp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield since last September, to around 3.0% now, can be attributed to inflation compensation. The rest has been guided by a belief that the Fed... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) We suspect that the recent deterioration in consumer sentiment reflects the impact of rising food prices. Either way, the survey still points to a rebound in spending on durable goods. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation outlook remains subdued Inflationary pressures picked up in the first quarter in Australia, with underlying inflation rising to the bottom of the RBA’s 2-3% target for the first time in two years. In contrast, core inflation... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rebound in healthcare inflation a headache for the Fed The rebound in core PCE inflation over recent months in part reflects sharp increases in administered payments for hospital services that will be repeated later this year. A revival in healthcare... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
