Africa Economic Outlook Recovery losing steam Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen a touch in 2019, but growth across the region will remain weaker than consensus expectations. We think that growth in Nigeria will slow... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Nigerian inflation remained essentially unchanged in September, which supports our view that – despite recent hawkish language – policymakers will leave their key rate on hold over the coming months. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Policymakers are likely to look through the latest pick-up in consumer price inflation and focus instead on evidence of cooling economic momentum, including slower core inflation and weaker factory... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q3) The jump in inflation from 1.5% in Q2 to 1.9% in Q3 was largely driven by higher energy prices and won’t allow the RBNZ to conclude that underlying price pressures are strengthening. While Q3’s data... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The rise in wholesale price inflation in September was due in large part due to a significant rebound in food inflation. But core inflation also remained elevated, supporting our view that the RBI’s... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Inflation pressures mounting in Sweden and Norway Inflation data published this week showed that price pressures are building in Sweden and Norway. We expect the Riksbank to begin raising interest rates in December. But while the Norges Bank looks... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Consumer price inflation crept only a little higher last month. But with core inflation still well above the Reserve Bank’s target, we think that the tightening cycle has a little further to run. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets more hawkish on Hungary, Turkish lira strengthens September’s strong Hungarian inflation data – released on Tuesday – caused investors to raise their interest rate expectations, coming round to our more hawkish view. Meanwhile, a fall in inflation... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The second consecutive modest rise in core consumer prices in September, together with the sell-off in the stock market, won’t be enough to prevent the “crazy’ Fed from raising rates again in December... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Missing Saudi journalist makes politics key economic risk The disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul raises fresh questions about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reputation as a reformer and political developments pose a growing... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rebound in non-energy inflation in September will reassure the Riksbank that it is right to be planning to tighten monetary policy in the coming months. We expect underlying inflation to continue... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Growth to slow further despite policy easing Policymakers have responded to growing signs of weakness in China’s domestic economy by ramping up policy support. But with momentum still slowing and trade tensions escalating, growth will not... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: latest steps to tackle inflation lack real punch The Turkish government’s latest plan to tackle high and rising inflation will probably have a limited impact and it reinforces our view that last month’s aggressive interest rate hike did not herald a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s strong inflation data are unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s plans to wait until Q1 next year before raising interest rates again. Looking beyond that, we think that falling oil prices... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
