Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) Brazilian inflation ticked up from 2.8% y/y in April to 2.9% in May, due in part to the recent truck drivers’ strike, which has led to supply disruptions. And while the markets have responded to the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) Mexican inflation continued to fall in May, and while the markets have responded to the recent drop in the peso against the dollar by pricing in a 25bp hike at this month’s policy meeting, we’re... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank hikes, elections key to rate outlook The Turkish central bank’s decision to hike its one-week repo rate by 125bp, to 17.75%, is a tentative sign that it is shifting its focus away from simply shoring up the lira and towards tackling high... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated in May, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Core inflation will also have remained elevated, and this is likely to be the case for... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Rising global oil prices will put upward pressure on Chinese inflation over the next few months. But with food and core inflation both likely to edge down, we expect headline consumer price inflation... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (May) Although headline inflation rose in May to its highest level in over seven years, the core rate fell to a nine-month low. This will be a concern to the SNB, especially given the appreciation of the... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) The slowdown in wage growth in April was driven by volatile bonus payments, whereas base pay kept growing at the strongest pace in two decades. But wages would still have to grow much faster to meet... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy resilient to renewed trade tensions The risk of a global trade war has risen in the past few weeks. President Trump has gone ahead with plans to levy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which is likely to provoke retaliation. In... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation in the Philippines close to peaking Having nudged higher again in May, inflation in the Philippines probably has a little further to rise. But with food and energy price pressures set to ease over the coming months and the impact of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian inflation was unchanged at 2.4% y/y in May, providing further evidence that the ruble’s fall in April has not led to a build-up in price pressures. This should give the central bank confidence... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) Despite the sharp rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 12.1% y/y, the rally in lira over the past week or so means that we think that the central bank will decide to stand pat at its MPC meeting on... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will the Fed let inflation overshoot? Despite the sharp rebound in core inflation this year, there seems to be a growing belief in the markets that the Fed is now prepared to allow inflation to rise above the 2% target without stepping up... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update E. African inflation: Still on track for rate cuts in 2018 Inflation in Kenya and Uganda will pick up over the coming months. The shift will be mostly due to base effects, and with inflation within target, policymakers in both countries will cut rates by 50bp... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Are markets right to reassess the Fed rate outlook? We still expect that domestic economic conditions will prompt the Fed to hike its policy rate a further three times this year and twice in the first half of next year. But that view is based on the... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Heightened uncertainty in Malaysia post-election In a massive political upset, the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition led by Najib Razak was ousted by a resurgent opposition led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia’s 14 th... 28th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A $100 oil price would not be a disaster We still believe that the oil price is more likely to fall from US$80 per barrel to US$65 rather than rise to US$100 as some have suggested. But even if it did hit US$100, inflation in Australia... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
