The jump in Turkish inflation in June, to 12.6% y/y, as well as last week’s surprise decision by the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged, reinforces our view that the easing cycle is over. For now, we expect rates to be on hold until at least the end of 2021 but Turkey’s large external debts and vulnerability to renewed financial market turbulence means that the risks are skewed towards rate hikes.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.