Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) South African inflation eased slightly in May, which should reduce speculation that the SARB will hike rates in the coming months. We think that policymakers will keep rates on hold, before cutting in... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Turkey forecasts We have warned about the risk of a sharp slowdown in Turkey for some time and this now seems to be materialising. The economy is likely to experience a quarter or two of negative growth this year. A... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Inflation to be contained this year Inflation in Uganda will accelerate over the coming months, but remain below the highs recorded last year. Policymakers will probably leave rates on hold this year, but restart their easing cycle in... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation outlook is benign Inflation in most major advanced economies is likely to trend towards 2% over the next couple of years. Despite record-low unemployment rates, wage inflation is likely to remain fairly weak in most... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still holding fast to ultra-loose policy The Bank of Japan has recently been expressing greater concern about the impact of ultra-loose monetary policy on financial stability. But Governor Kuroda today insisted that the key focus of policy... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s requirements for a rate rise Governor Lowe outlined in a speech earlier this week that before interest rates are raised from their record low of 1.5% the RBA will want to have “reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) May’s rise in Swedish CPIF inflation primarily reflected stronger energy and food inflation. But with domestic inflationary pressure building, we continue to think the Riksbank will raise rates in... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in May and looks set to remain elevated suggests that the RBI will follow up this month... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) The rise in oil prices has brought the recent downward trend in CPI inflation to a halt. But we doubt it will be too long before inflation starts to drift down again. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will surging interest rates sink the economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The increase in headline inflation to a six-year high of 2.8% in May is partly due to the rally in energy prices, but it is also reflects another solid monthly gain in core CPI, which will keep the... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Consumer price inflation rose to a four-month high in May and, with core inflation in particular set to remain elevated, we think the RBI will follow up last week’s hike in the repo rate with further... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 2% inflation target remains elusive Headline inflation has been falling recently as the impact of the short-lived spike in food prices over the winter has reversed. Energy inflation has continued to slow as utility bills are rising less... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume later this year A further sharp fall in Egyptian inflation last month has strengthened the case for further interest rate cuts. But policymakers seem hesitant to loosen policy against the backdrop of upcoming subsidy... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (May) May’s weak inflation data in Norway strengthen the case for the Norges Bank to move only very slowly towards tightening monetary policy. We suspect that it will wait until early 2019 before raising... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2018) & Czech CPI (May) The Turkish economy grew by a faster-than-expected 7.4% y/y in Q1 but, crucially, this predates the recent financial market turmoil. An abrupt slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters. 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
