Europe Chart Pack Country divergence looks set to continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that growth in the euro-zone as a whole will continue at a fairly healthy pace of around 0.4% per quarter in the near term. But there is a growing divergence by... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Third-quarter slowdown a sign of things to come The world economy seems to have lost some momentum in the past few months and we expect it to slow further in the coming year. World trade growth has fallen sharply, though this is due to weakening... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi lifts oil output, Egypt’s external pressures easing Reports that Saudi Arabia will ramp up oil output over the coming months support our view that GDP growth will be stronger than most expect over the rest of this year and in the first half of 2019... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Growth appears to have ticked up in Q3 The Markit/CIPS all-sector output PMI was more or less unchanged in Q3 compared to Q2, consistent with GDP growth remaining steady at 0.4% q/q. However, we think that growth was a little bit stronger... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC in dovish mood … for now Poland’s MPC maintained a dovish stance today. On the face of it, low inflation suggests that this position is justified, but we think that policymakers are too sanguine on the outlook for consumer... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus No end in sight to “lowflation” in Switzerland After almost five years of deflation, consumer prices are finally rising in Switzerland. But much of this has reflected higher energy costs, while underlying price pressures are still very weak. We... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update When will the BCB shift to tightening? The timing of the Brazilian central bank’s first interest rate hike is likely to be determined by politics as much as economics. There’s a lot of uncertainty related to the outcome of the Presidential... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) Last month’s PMI data paint a mixed picture in the Gulf but we expect growth in non-oil sectors to pick up over the coming months on the back of fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, the survey in Egypt... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does that latest jump in oil prices mean for EMs? The rise in oil prices to $85pb brings most major oil producers’ budgets close to balance (and in a few cases a large surplus) and could open the door for fiscal policy to be loosened in a few... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 24.5% y/y in September increases the chances of another interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. But given the scale of last month’s rate... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) September’s falls in the Swiss and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs leave them still pointing to strong growth in the sector. But it is in Sweden that price pressures seem to be strongest. 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates, tightening cycle not over yet The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked interest rates by a further 100bp on Saturday and made clear in its policy statement that tackling the country’s mounting external imbalances remain its priority... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The deterioration in business conditions in the Q3 Tankan supports our view that GDP growth slowed last quarter. That said, firms remain optimistic about the outlook for capital spending and the... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation on the rise EM inflation increased to its highest level in more than a year and a half in August, and we think that this has further to run over the coming months. One consequence is that the monetary policy in... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) The further decline in core inflation in September was a little disappointing and, against a backdrop of slower economic growth, will ensure that the ECB remains very cautious in its approach to... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
