Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further sharp fall in Egyptian inflation last month, to 14.4% y/y, should be enough to persuade the central bank to cut interest rates by a further 100bp at its monetary policy meeting this month... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in headline inflation to prove temporary Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in February, due to a drop in food and fuel inflation. But core price pressures are still building. We think this will ultimately prompt the Reserve... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German core inflation to rise only gradually With clear signs that inflationary pressures are growing in Germany, core inflation looks set to rise. But as this will be gradual and price pressures elsewhere are subdued, it will be of little... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation figures for February confirmed that underlying price pressures remain weak and another cut in the central bank’s policy interest rate at the next Board meeting later this month is... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effects to have lifted inflation in February Following a fall in January, consumer price inflation will probably have jumped last month to a one-year high. We expect a further rise in food price inflation to keep the headline rate elevated over... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Rate hikes unlikely despite rise in inflation Despite inflation rising to its highest rate in nearly four years in February, the central bank seems in little hurry to tighten monetary policy. We continue to believe that interest rates in the... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Feb.) & Swedish Production (Jan.) The further decline in Swiss inflation in February to a five-month low will add to the Swiss National Bank’s caution ahead of its monetary policy meeting next week. Indeed, subdued inflation is likely... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The slightly stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation data for February, of 10.3% y/y, means the MPC is likely to stick to its hawkish tone at Wednesday’s MPC meeting. Inflation should begin to edge... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) & Tokyo CPI (Feb.) The labour market continues to tighten and price pressures are strengthening further. However, there is still a long way to go to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Household sentiment weakened in February as the recent equity market turmoil reduced confidence in households’ personal finances. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in headline inflation does not change our view that the ECB will drop the easing bias from its forward guidance at its meeting on 8th March. But with core inflation still weak and... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in German inflation reflected falls in the volatile food and energy components. But the still subdued rate of core inflation will encourage the ECB to take a cautious approach to... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe’s “gradual” signal on progress towards rate hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 6 th March and it will probably continue to signal that there is no risk of a... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation edging closer to 2% target The Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures have trended higher and are close to the 2% inflation target. Despite the drop in headline inflation in January, the core inflation data will... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Saudi inflation in January was almost entirely the result of various austerity measures that came into effect at the start of this year. That said, a change to the base year of the... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could the Phillips Curve be L-shaped? Some economists have been considering whether, having been stubbornly low for years, wage inflation may take off as the world reaches full employment. This Update considers why this might occur. 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
