Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA paints a near-perfect picture of the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new projections that the economy will be in an almost perfect state in 2020 suggest that the Bank is edging ever so slowly towards raising interest rates. Our view that... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The second consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven largely by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. There’s a long way to go until the next policy meeting, but... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: nearing the end of the tightening cycle The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today increased its policy rate for the third meeting in a row, and left the door open to further rate hikes. We think at least one further increase in rates... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) Egyptian inflation edged down to 13.5% y/y last month, a sign that the impact of the recent administered price hikes are starting to fade. But this will not be enough to prompt policymakers to loosen. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Today’s higher-than-expected inflation figures reflect a temporary boost from higher oil prices, along with the usual volatility in food prices. If anything, broader price pressures appear to be... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will soft inflation delay Riksbank tightening? Non-energy inflation in Sweden has been unexpectedly weak in recent months, prompting investors to push back their expectations of the first rate rise into 2019. But there is evidence of rising cost... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) Brazilian inflation rose to a higher-than-expected 4.5% y/y last month, but this reflects higher food and energy inflation which the central bank has made clear it will look through. Underlying price... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped in July, in large part due to a fall in food inflation. But core inflation is likely to have remained elevated by the standards of the... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Tariffs and renminbi fall won’t cause jump in inflation If carried out, China’s threat last week to expand tariffs to cover more than 70% of its imports from the US would nudge up import costs, though only very slightly. The renminbi’s recent depreciation... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer slowdown should prove temporary Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth to just 0.3% q/q dealt a blow to hopes that the softness of growth in the first quarter would be a one-off. While no breakdown is available yet, timely data from France and... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jun.) The surge in wage growth in June was mostly driven by stronger bonus payments whereas base pay didn’t pick up any further. Meanwhile, the rise in household spending in June adds to the evidence that... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The small rise in Russian headline inflation, to 2.5% y/y, was driven by higher food inflation, while underlying price pressures still look very soft. We still think the central bank will lower... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt offer suggests a deal is likely A new offer to restructure Mozambique’s debt hints at the shape that an eventual deal may take. An agreement would provide a boost to confidence in an economy that is already starting to recover. 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Strong growth unlikely to last The world economy has rebounded after a sluggish first quarter, with global growth rising to around 4% annualised in Q2. But we doubt that this will last long because it has largely resulted from a... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly PMIs point to decent start to Q3 July’s PMIs for the Nordic and Swiss countries, which were published this week, suggest that these countries continued their strong performance at the start of Q3. Swiss inflation data released... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM tightening cycle to kick on Inflationary pressures now seem to be building in many EMs. As a result, we think that the interest rate hikes seen in a few countries this week and that are likely next week will be followed by... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
