India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The RBI doesn’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated to a seven-month high in December nevertheless supports our view that the rate-cutting... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Chances of policy easing diminishing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged when its forthcoming meeting concludes on 21st January as recent data have mostly been reassuring. And while we expect the... 14th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The jump in headline CPI inflation to its highest since 2014 almost guarantees that the RBI will leave policy rates on hold at its next meeting in early February. And with core inflation likely to... 13th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Another false dawn for inflation? We doubt that the increase in core inflation late last year marks the start of a sustained upward trend. After all, inflation has risen on several previous occasions recently, only to fall back again... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Nov.) Strong Brazilian inflation – which jumped to 4.3% y/y last month – and signs that the economy is on a firmer footing, suggest that the further interest rate cuts some still expect in early 2020 won’t... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway and Denmark Consumer Prices (Dec.) We doubt that December’s decline in underlying inflation in Norway is the start of a trend. Given our view that the economy will regain momentum before long, the balance of risks is skewed towards... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil prices, African Swine Fever & EM inflation Our measure of aggregate EM inflation, which hit a four and a half year high last month, should fall over the course of this year as the disruption caused by African Swine Fever fades. But this is... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: central banks to shrug off high inflation The recent rise in inflation to multi-year highs across most of Central Europe has only a little further to run, but it will stay above central banks’ targets across the region this year. Policymakers... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico CPI (Dec.) & Brazil Ind. Production (Nov.) Mexican inflation eased again in December, supporting our view that policymakers will continue to cut rates this year. Elsewhere, the larger-than-expected 1.2% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The jump in Egyptian inflation last month to 7.1% y/y was largely due to the unwinding of favourable base effects but it means that next week’s interest rate decision will be a much closer call than... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Moderating food price inflation took the pressure off consumer price inflation while producer price deflation eased thanks to base effects and an increase in energy prices. The big picture is that... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Another surge in headline CPI inflation in December, perhaps to a five-year high, means that the RBI’s easing cycle is probably over. And a rise in core inflation over the coming quarters should... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile CPI (Dec.) The rise in Chilean inflation to 3.0% y/y in December is likely to be followed by a further increase to around 4.0% y/y over the first half of this year. That said, this period of above-target... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
