Another false dawn for inflation?

We doubt that the increase in core inflation late last year marks the start of a sustained upward trend. After all, inflation has risen on several previous occasions recently, only to fall back again. Also, the weak economic backdrop makes this an unlikely time for price pressures to suddenly pick up. Next week is a quiet one for data, but we expect to learn that Germany’s GDP growth slowed to around 0.5% in 2019, from 1.5% the previous year.