Asia Economic Outlook Growth to slow from a five-year high Growth in Emerging Asia reached a five-year high in 2017 but we think that it has now peaked and will slow gradually over the next couple of years. The main headwind will come from the export sector... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) Nigerian inflation slipped to a 15-month low in December. We expect that policymakers will keep rates on hold in January and March, but will cut rates by 100bp in May as inflation eases further. 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack A busy month for central banks The three major Nordic and Swiss central banks met in December and provided very different messages about the outlook for monetary policy in their respective countries. First, the Swiss National Bank... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Headline wholesale price inflation edged down in December. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose last month. With reasons to think that... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in December will reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike in March and supports our view that the Fed will ultimately increase interest rates by a more... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy on track for solid Q4 The recent spate of positive economic news has prompted some to raise their forecasts for Q4 quarterly growth to as much as 0.6%, double the average seen in 2017 so far. We have our doubts over... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The latest acceleration in consumer price inflation underlines our view that markets have been underestimating the likelihood of policy rate hikes in India this year. 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) Swedish policymakers will be discouraged by the fact that the decline in inflation in December was due to slower inflation for domestic goods and services. But with resource utilisation strong... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi households to be a weak spot in 2018 The Saudi government looks set to loosen fiscal policy this year which should support a pick-up in economic growth. However, as we explain in this Watch, households won’t be net beneficiaries from... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 3.0% y/y last month leaves it right at the lower bound of the central bank’s 4.5±1.5% target range, which should provide room for a further 25bp cut in the Selic... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Dec.) Despite December’s jump in inflation in Norway, underlying price pressures remain subdued. With house price inflation falling further into negative territory, we suspect that it will be a long time... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) A further sharp drop in Egyptian inflation in December means that the central bank is likely to embark on an easing cycle at the next monetary policy meeting in February. We expect inflation and... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Inflation ended 2017 on a softer note, with a decline in both producer price inflation and non-food consumer price inflation. This is consistent with our view that cooling price pressures will open... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy shrugging off euro’s rise At the start of January, the euro reached a three-year high against the US dollar and a three-and-a-half year high in trade-weighted terms. While the euro’s climb over the past year or so may seem... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to a pick-up in wage pressures in 2018 Small firms remain optimistic about the outlook, but tighter labour market conditions are becoming an increasing constraint on expansion. That points to a pick-up in wage pressures and continued... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Households remained in high spirits in December which suggests that Q3’s drop in consumer spending wasn’t repeated last quarter. 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
