Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s rise in Swiss inflation reflected both higher energy prices and a weaker franc. But with inflation still very weak, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank will decide to alter its ultra... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2018 We’ve revised down our forecast for China’s growth next year on the back of the weakness in recent data. There will be little movement in the official GDP growth numbers but we now expect actual... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy maintaining its momentum in Q4 The Office for National Statistics confirmed that GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3 and the economy appears to have maintained its recent momentum so far in the fourth quarter. Indeed, November’s Markit/CIPS... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.5% y/y last month means the central bank is now all but certain to continue its easing cycle next week. We expect a 25bp cut to 8.00%. Inflation has probably... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a fourteen-year high of 13.0% y/y in November, from 11.9% y/y in October, will undoubtedly alarm policymakers at the central bank. With the government seemingly... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Households are the most upbeat since 2013 which suggests that the drop in consumer spending last quarter was just a blip. 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Census data shed more light on low inflation The latest batch of Census data released earlier this week on the labour market cast doubt over the quality of the jobs created since the 2008-09 recession. There are still signs of prime-aged workers... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The pay squeeze continues, but should abate next year The rise in inflation, primarily driven by sterling’s post-referendum slide, has taken its toll on consumer spending growth this year. However, we think that the worst of the real pay squeeze has... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the fall in spare capacity mean for wages? While the notable strengthening in the Australian labour market this year has led to some reduction in the high levels of existing spare capacity, wage growth has remained around record lows. And the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Government won’t get its wish Rumours that members of the government are attempting to pressure the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to loosen monetary policy are nothing new, although continued efforts to undermine the central bank’s... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Household Spending, Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Capital Spending (Q3) Today’s household spending data suggest that private consumption remained sluggish this quarter. Meanwhile, there are still few signs that the tight labour market is boosting price pressures. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s rise in headline euro-zone consumer price inflation and the fall in the unemployment rate in October may offer some reassurance to the ECB as it prepares to reduce the pace of its asset... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German and Spanish consumer prices data support expectations that euro-zone inflation reversed last month’s decline as energy inflation rose. But underlying price pressures are still... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe signalling that rates unlikely to rise next year Recent comments by Governor Lowe about the outlook for monetary policy all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at its final policy meeting of the year on... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The unexpected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of November has increased the chances that the central bank will restart its tightening cycle in the next few months. However, we still think... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov.) The further increase in Brazilian inflation in the first half of November, which was in line with expectations, is unlikely to alter the thinking of COPOM, and we continue to expect a 50bp cut in the... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
