Japan Economics Weekly Markets expect BoJ rate cut next year, we don’t The surge in retail sales in September increases the chances of a steep slump in spending after the sales tax hike on 1 st October. And the rise in the unemployment rate in September suggests that... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The confirmation this morning that Swiss inflation fell back into negative territory in October for the first time since November 2016 will reignite deflationary fears at the SNB and strengthen its... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong goods inflation probably won’t last The resilience in Q3 inflation was driven by the strongest increase in goods prices in a decade. But with import price growth now slowing, we think that strength won’t last. Meanwhile, we’ve lifted... 1st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, CPI (Oct.) Korean exports fell sharply again in y/y terms last month, but the sector is in better health than the headline data suggest. Meanwhile, Korea exited deflation in October and inflation should continue... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political clouds gather Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy moves make headlines in key economies Policymakers in South Africa and Angola admitted the severity of their countries’ economic problems this month, while their Nigerian peers moved further down the road to autarky. South Africa’s... 31st October 2019 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), Unemp. (Sept.) & HICP (Oct.) The slightly better-than-expected euro-zone Q3 GDP figure does not alter the fact that the region is expanding at only a very modest pace. What’s more, forward-looking indicators, along with the... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their... 31st October 2019 · 10 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka goes to the polls Campaigning ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential election, to be held on 16th November, is well underway. President Maithripala Sirisena has already confirmed he will not stand again and will step down... 30th October 2019 · 15 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q3) While inflation edged up in Q3 we think the weakness in economic activity will cause it to fall again before long, prompting further easing by the RBA. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown worsens The focus on political risk and Lebanon’s growing debt problem have meant that the sharp slowdown in growth across large parts of the region has gone unnoticed. The latest figures suggest that the... 29th October 2019 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Mexican inflation remained at 3.0% y/y October, which supports our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of this year. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Sep.) South African inflation edged down to 4.1% in September, but we expect that increasing fuel price pressures will cause the headline rate to rise later this year, preventing monetary easing. 23rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.7% y/y in the middle of October, one of its lowest rates on record, means policymakers will (barring any hiccups in the final vote on pension reform later today)... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
