Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) Despite October’s increase in CPIF inflation, underlying inflation in Sweden remains below target and serves as proof that the economy is not ready for the Riksbank’s planned rate hike in December... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation to stay weak, more rate cuts on the way The decline in Egyptian inflation to a 14-year low of 3.1% y/y in October raises the risk that the central bank lowers interest rates by more than the 100bp that we have pencilled in for Thursday’s... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway and Denmark Consumer Prices (Oct.) While we expect the Norges Bank to leave its key policy interest rate on hold at 1.50% into 2022, the persistence of above-target core inflation in Norway will ensure that it maintains a comparatively... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update The PBOC’s inflation dilemma The People’s Bank is powerless to stop consumer price inflation jumping above its target without undermining its broader mandate to support growth and employment. Given this trade-off we expect the... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Turning away from freer trade India’s decision this week to opt-out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is not entirely unreasonable given the limited scope of the deal. But by excluding itself from the RCEP... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly GDP growth isn’t picking up The decline in capital goods imports over the past year suggests that business investment is set to fall further in the second half of the year . What's more, the fall in real retail sales in Q3 point... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA indicates further easing may be needed By signalling that inflation will remain below the lower end of its 2-3% target band for the foreseeable future, the RBA signalled that further easing is on the cards. Our view remains that the Bank... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.5% in October, one of the lowest rates on record, makes another 50bp cut in the Selic rate at December’s Copom meeting almost certain. That said, policymakers have... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Labour market begins to loosen The jump in the unemployment rate in September is evidence that the labour market has entered a loosening phase. The Bank of Japan reiterated that the output gap was its key gauge of price pressures... 7th November 2019 · 10 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen above the RBI’s 4.0% target for the first time in 15 months in October due to another jump in food inflation. This won’t dissuade the central... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update High inflation will prevent Polish MPC from cutting The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold at 1.50% today and with external headwinds mounting and the economy likely to slow sharply over the coming quarters, calls for interest... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The decline in Russian inflation to 3.8% y/y in October is likely to be followed by further falls in the coming months, providing scope for the central bank’s easing cycle to run a little further. We... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The drop in Turkish inflation last month probably marks the trough and inflation is likely to rise over the coming months. Pressure from President Erdogan and recent sanguine inflation forecasts from... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Nord Stream 2, Turkish inflation, Romania’s budget The Danish government’s decision to approve the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline this week is widely seen as a victory for Russia, who could potentially halt energy supplies to Ukraine. But with the... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Moody’s outlook fears, Kwanza collapse, Springboks! Moody’s is likely to adopt a ‘negative’ outlook on South Africa’s local currency debt rating later today, paving the way for a downgrade to ‘junk’ status. The review comes days after the government... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plenum readout, stagflation fears, RCEP Summit The conclusion of the Communist Party Plenum offered few clues on the direction of economic policy. Meanwhile, rising inflation is leading to suggestions that the PBOC won’t be able to loosen as much... 1st November 2019 · 6 mins read
