Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) Although retail sales rose in September, the increase was not sufficient for the sector to match Q2’s performance in Q3. This suggests that total household spending was behind the slowdown in... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) Today’s BRC survey adds to the evidence from the CBI last week that October was a poor month for retailers. However, that is at least partly down to unseasonably warm weather which looks to have... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) The final estimate of October’s euro-zone Composite PMI confirmed that the economy made a strong start to Q4. But there are still only tentative signs that inflationary pressures are building. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Oct.) & Swedish Production Index. (Sep.) October’s weak Swiss inflation data support our view that SNB interest rate hikes are a very distant prospect. Elsewhere, Swedish production data suggest that quarterly GDP growth slowed in Q3. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New CPI weights mean sub-2% inflation lasts longer The new CPI spending weights suggest that inflation will be 0.2 percentage points lower than otherwise over the next two years and therefore support our view that underlying inflation will stay below... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Has Japan overcome deflation? Suggestions from Japan’s government that it has vanquished deflation are premature when wages are barely rising, core inflation is close to zero and inflation expectations are lower than a few years... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to rise further We expect CPI inflation to have rebounded in October driven by a rise in food price inflation. The core rate, which hit a six-year high in September, will likely have edged up too. Looking ahead, a... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Oct.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 11.9% y/y, was worryingly broad based. There are reasons to think that inflation will begin to fall significantly from December, but in the near-term... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Households remained upbeat ahead of last month’s Lower House elections which suggests that the recent slowdown in household spending is unlikely to last. 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q3) & CPI (Oct.) The euro-zone economy posted a stronger-than-expected 0.6% quarterly expansion in Q3, but October’s CPI data will have reinforced the ECB’s judgement that its inflation goal is not yet in sight. 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q3), CPI (Oct.) & Cons. Spending (Sep.) The French economic recovery continued at a healthy pace in Q3, marking a good start to Emmanuel Macron’s presidential term. Although inflation edged up in October, it remains fairly subdued, which... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s falls in German and Spanish consumer price inflation support the ECB’s view that its eurozone inflation goal is not yet in sight. While the strength of the economy should boost underlying... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Challenging the tightening trend Australia and New Zealand will probably stand out from the crowd next year as interest rates stay at their respective record lows of 1.50% and 1.75% while rates are raised in some other advanced... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook will ensure ECB treads carefully The ECB’s decision to reduce its monthly asset purchases from January largely reflected growing optimism that euro-zone inflation will rise towards the target of below, but close to, 2%. Indeed, the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation nudges down again Aggregate EM inflation ticked down between August and September on the back of a fall in food inflation in East Asia. This appears to have been due to a shift in the timing of holidays in the region... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
