Ukraine’s IMF deal, Russian GDP & CEE inflation

Ukraine is on the cusp of securing a new IMF deal but history suggests that the government will struggle to meet the Fund’s demands, which could put the recent rally in the bond market into reverse. Meanwhile, the breakdown of Russian GDP data for Q3 provided signs that the acceleration in growth was built on shaky foundations and is unlikely to be sustained into next year. Finally, data released this week showed that inflation in Central and Eastern Europe rose further above central bank’s targets in November. This is likely to keep the focus of the debate at next week’s Czech MPC meeting on whether to tighten policy.