2020 to be better than 2019

Economic growth across the emerging world has slumped this year but, with the important exception of China, recoveries should take hold in 2020. Recent interest rate cuts will keep financial conditions accommodative. And governments will continue to loosen the purse strings, particularly in Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe. Moreover, we expect that advanced economy growth will trough in Q1 and strengthen thereafter, which should support EM exporters. Nonetheless, those hoping for a rapid rebound are likely to be disappointed. Our GDP growth forecasts for 2020 are generally below consensus. We will explain these forecasts for next year, as well as others, in our forthcoming Key Calls Focus.