Global Economics Update Back to the 1970s? While the parallels with the 1970s have been building, we remain unlikely to see the scale of stagflation witnessed back then. The main difference now is the apparent determination of central banks to... 22nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can EMs weather Fed tightening? For the most part, EMs are well placed to withstand rising US interest rates, but there are pockets of vulnerability where external financing needs are significant. Among the large EMs, Turkey... 22nd March 2022 · 13 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tightening would require wage growth of at least 2% Governor Kuroda admitted last week that inflation could hit the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in April but stressed that “that in no way signifies there will be a revision of our current monetary policy”... 21st March 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s inflation shock, default & peace talks Russia’s default saga seems to be settled for the time being, with creditors reportedly now receiving scheduled Eurobond payments, but the fact that it came so close to default suggests that sanctions... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Should the BoE fear the “stag” more than the “flation”? The Bank of England appears to be putting more weight on the “stag” part of the stagflationary consequences of the war in Ukraine than the “flation” part. But our forecast that the labour market will... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Wheat exports, inflation jump, loan moratorium expiry India's wheat exports have soared recently and stand to benefit further from the shock to global supply caused by the war in Ukraine. But the consequences for India's external position will be small... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget to target inflation while reducing deficits The New Zealand government this week reduced fuel excise taxes by 25 cents per litre for three months. And Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has indicated the Australian Budget due on the 29 th... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Supply chain disruption could take the gloss off Q2 All domestic restrictions will be removed on Monday after two-and-a-half months of quasi-states of emergency covering most of the economy. Our assumption is that Japan – as PM Kishida hopes – will now... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2022) Inflation picked up in February due to another jump in utilities inflation and a strong rise in fresh food inflation. We think headline inflation will rise above 2% in April as some of the spike in... 18th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran nuclear deal, wiring shortage a fillip to North Africa The Iran nuclear deal appears to be on the brink of being revived and, were that to happen, the lifting of sanctions would provide a major direct boost to Iran’s economy. Increased oil output could... 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Ukraine war heightens inflation and external risks The surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will have several repercussions for India’s economy. As a major net commodity importer, its terms of trade will deteriorate and we think... 17th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Feb.) With the war in Ukraine pushing up energy and food prices and potentially exacerbating supply problems, we think euro-zone inflation will remain around 6% until Q4 and average well above 2% next year... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine war will push up euro-zone food inflation Food inflation in the euro-zone is on the rise and the war in Ukraine will make matters worse. While policymakers might normally “look through” a period of high food inflation, with the headline rate... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) While the price increases in February were not as broad-based as in January, they nevertheless caused all three of the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures to rise further and suggest that, even... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation will hit 21-year high We now expect inflation to reach a 21-year high of 5.2% in Q3 as fuel prices surge and firms pass on higher raw material costs to consumers. With the labour market nearing full employment and... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growing threats to global growth and inflation We warned at the start of the year that global growth would disappoint, while inflation would surprise to the upside in 2022 and recent events have added to those concerns. The surge in commodity... 15th March 2022 · 14 mins read
