Europe Economics Weekly Drop back in bond yields takes pressure off ECB The fall in sovereign bond yields over the past week may make things a little easier for the ECB Governing Council when it meets on 10 th June. We think it is likely to replace its commitment to make... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss seven-year itch; lots to ponder at the Riksbank The breakdown of the Swiss/EU Treaty talks has taken the headlines this week, but the Swiss economy appears to be galloping ahead in any case. While the belated release of Q1 GDP data next week is... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Upside risks to inflation as the economy re-opens The jump in inflation to 3.4% in April was stronger than most forecasters expected and, with firms’ selling price expectations rising again in May, there seem to be further upside risks to inflation... 27th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks build, central banks start to react The strength of inflation and expectations for a strong economic recovery have prompted a clear hawkish shift among Central European central banks. We think it will take time for a majority in favour... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation edges higher Headline inflation rates have increased in almost all countries in the region since the turn of the year reflecting a combination of price pressures as economies re-open, higher food inflation and tax... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
RBI Watch Policy to remain loose for a long time yet We agree with financial markets and the analyst consensus that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 4 th June, particularly given that the worst of... 27th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2021) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 7.3% y/y in the middle of May, can partly be pinned on unfavourable base effects, but there are also signs of a broader increase in goods inflation. While... 25th May 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to extend QE in July The Reserve Bank of Australia will still sound dovish at the upcoming meeting on 1 st June, paving the way for an extension of its bond purchase programme at the July meeting. But amidst early signs... 25th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The stock market rotation may have further to run Even if, as we suspect, the outperformance of the energy and materials sectors soon comes to an end, we expect the broader rotation in equity markets to continue over the next few years. 24th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) The drop in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.8% y/y in the first half of May was driven by a sharp fall in energy inflation. While we expect that this trend will continue in the coming months, there... 24th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed remaining dovish as supply-side constraints mount In a relatively quiet week, the few data releases we did get added to signs that shortages are pushing up prices further and restraining the pace of economic recovery. 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine surge, commodity price curbs After a slow start, China’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout is now one of the world’s fastest and is currently responsible for over half of daily inoculations globally. At this pace, China could catch up... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May) Today’s flash PMIs suggest that the manufacturing sector will continue to recover as supply shortages are starting to ease. However, the plunge in the services PMI suggests that overall economic... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We expect recent strength in the South African rand to reverse Despite its recent appreciation against the US dollar, we expect the South African rand – like most emerging market (EM) currencies – to end this year weaker against the greenback. 20th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank may welcome strong loonie after inflation spike The Bank of Canada has voiced concern about the loonie although, following the signs of emerging inflationary pressures in April, it will probably be more welcoming of the disinflationary impact of... 20th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Inflation in euro-zone to remain lower than in US Price pressures are building in the US and we think they will be longer-lasting than the Fed expects, but it is a very different story in the euro-zone. A weaker economic recovery and a flat Phillips... 20th May 2021 · 17 mins read
