Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Apr.) The latest inflation figures for Israel provided few signs that the reopening of the economy resulted in a pick-up in price pressures in April. This supports our view that inflation will remain in... 14th May 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC is right to be relaxed about inflation Producer prices are rising rapidly as the extraordinary surge in global demand for consumer durables during the pandemic has led to bottlenecks in supply. But the People’s Bank is right to not be too... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped to a three-month low in April, adding to evidence elsewhere that the recent tightening of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How far will rising commodity prices boost inflation? We think that the broad-based rally in commodity prices will go into reverse later this year, so the upward pressure on inflation in advanced economies should be temporary. But there is a clear risk... 12th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) The further jump in Brazilian inflation to 6.8% in April makes another 75bp rate hike (to 4.25%) at the next central bank meeting in June highly likely. But the breakdown of the data provides reason... 11th May 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Producer price inflation was the strongest since October 2017 last month, as upstream price pressures remained significant due to supply constraints. This is feeding through to a rebound in consumer... 11th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation, bond yields and the Fed Although long-term nominal US Treasury yields have remained broadly stable over the past month or so in the face of rising inflation compensation, we don’t expect this to last. 10th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate fell to a seven-month low of 4.1% y/y in April, leaving it well below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range. We think the headline rate will pick... 10th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.) The fall in Russian inflation to 5.5% y/y in April was largely driven by base effects that pulled down food inflation as underlying price pressures remained strong. The central bank will continue to... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The surge in Mexico’s inflation to 6.1% y/y in April was mainly driven by unfavourable base effects linked to fuel prices and this impact should unwind over the coming months. We think that Banxico... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reasons for hope and despair New infections in a handful of key states including Maharashtra now appear to be stabilising but, with the virus still spreading in almost every other part of the country, containment measures will... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The drop back in the ISM manufacturing index, to 60.7 in April from 64.7, appears to reflect intense and widespread supply constraints rather than a moderation in demand, a view which is underlined by... 3rd May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation to remain subdued for now Inflation was subdued in Q1 and while we expect the plunge in prices in Q2 2020 to cause a surge in inflation this quarter, headline inflation should be just 2% by year-end. More importantly, we... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Industrial Production (Mar. 2021) The rebound in industrial production and the sharp drop in the unemployment rate in March are consistent with our view that the economy held up much better than most had anticipated during the second... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Great Inflation 2.0? Lessons from the 1970s Policy stimulus and tolerance of inflation by central banks may lead to higher inflation in some G7 countries in the coming years. Given the parallels with the run-up to the high-inflation era of the... 29th April 2021 · 32 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
