Europe Economics Weekly ECB likely to look through rising inflation May’s inflation data were a little stronger than we and the consensus had expected, and inflation looks set to keep rising in the second half of the year. At next week's ECB meeting, we think that... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank not marvelling at proposed Act changes While many of the changes in the new proposed Riksbank Act are benign, the Bank argues with some merit that the new legislation would make it more difficult for it to use its balance sheet during... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time yet The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solid Q1 GDP more than makes up for Q2 weakness The strong rise in GDP in Q1 has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecasts for this year. And while the Victoria lockdown will weigh on consumption growth in Q2, sentiment is holding up so we expect... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea vaccinations surge, Philippines rate cuts loom A surge in vaccinations in Korea has brightened the prospects for the consumer recovery and strengthened our view that the central bank will be able to begin tightening monetary policy this year. In... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price rally continues, tourism re-opening Oil prices hit their highest level in more than two years this week and, combined with higher oil output over the rest of this year, will help to rein in large twin budget and current account deficits... 3rd June 2021 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch Preparing the ground for a super-dovish taper We think the ECB will tweak its monetary policy statement next week by pledging to maintain favourable financing conditions but not renewing its pledge to keep PEPP purchases at the recent... 3rd June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The latest falls in the lira mean that, despite the fall in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 16.6% y/y last month, the central bank (CBRT)will probably leave interest rates unchanged at this month... 3rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: inflation a growing risk as economies re-open Price pressures in Central Europe are building from a broad range of sources and, while most of these are likely to be temporary, the issue is that countries were experiencing stubbornly high... 2nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of the pandemic on inflation We expect inflation to rise to the mid-point of the RBA’s target band over the next couple of years. The main driver is a continued tightening of the labour market and a pick-up in wage growth. By... 2nd June 2021 · 16 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The jump in euro-zone inflation to 2.0% in May will not be the end of the upward trend, but we expect inflation to drop back sharply next year as temporary factors are reversed. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Rate hikes coming in Korea as recovery gathers momentum With the economy rebounding strongly from the crisis, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is starting to shift its attention away from supporting growth and towards containing financial risks. We expect the BoK... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Surging prices begin to weigh on confidence Negotiations over a bipartisan compromise on infrastructure spending continued this week, but the Republicans and Democrats are still so far apart in their offers that it is only a matter of time... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, fiscal support in Taiwan Fuel price inflation across Emerging Asia will drop back over the coming months as last year’s low base starts to drop out of the annual comparison. With large output gaps set to keep underlying price... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
