Global Economics Update How concerning is the recent rise in inflation? A rise in inflation was always likely to happen this year as economies re-opened and energy prices recovered from last year’s sharp falls. But in the US in particular, the increase since the start of... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further jump in core CPI inflation to a 28-year high of 3.8% in May, from 3.0%, was again driven by the same handful of categories most directly affect by the lifting of virus restrictions. But... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 4.8% y/y in May, the fastest pace recorded so far this year. But it remained below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range, supporting our... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation risks rising The risks to our forecast that CPI inflation will rise from 1.5% in April to a peak of 2.6% in November before dropping back in 2022 are increasingly on the upside. Rises in shipping costs and global... 10th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: severe capacity constraints but few inflation fears Taiwan’s economy is struggling with severe capacity constraints but there are few signs in recent data that this is fuelling broad-based wage or price pressure. That’s a stark contrast with the US... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect. 9th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (May) The further jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate last month, to 8.1% y/y, makes a 75bp hike in the Selic rate (to 4.25%) next week certain and Copom will probably signal that another 75bp hike is... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Mexican core inflation to its highest rate in over three years in May, at 4.4%, appears mainly to be related to temporary factors. Policymakers at the central bank will probably continue... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply shortages and EM inflation risks Supply-related price pressures are building, particularly in Central Europe and parts of East Asia. And while the factors behind this should prove temporary, output gaps in the most-affected countries... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Producer price inflation continued to surge and reached its highest level since September 2008 last month, on the back of a further rise in global commodity prices. That said, there are some signs in... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys point to surge in wage and price inflation The surge in job openings and voluntary quits in April add to the survey and anecdotal evidence that labour shortages are becoming increasingly acute. Those shortages look set to persist for some time... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of US inflation expectations and Treasuries The recent pull-back in the 10-year Treasury yield mainly seems to reflect less concern about the long-term outlook for inflation, even though Thursday’s CPI data will probably show that core... 8th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in May was driven by broad-based increases in both food and non-food goods and we think that the balance of factors is now firmly tilted... 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (May) Inflation in Switzerland is likely to keep climbing over the coming months, but we still expect it to fall back next year. So the SNB looks set to keep interest rates on hold for a very long time. 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats’ spending plans hit by reality check The Senate Parliamentarian delivered some bad news to the Democrats this week – ruling that they could introduce another reconciliation to the current budget, which would allow them to pass more of... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
