Asia Economics Update Indonesia: policy to remain on hold for some time Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% today and signalled that it was in no rush to adjust its monetary policy settings again this year. We expect rates to remain low to support... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Should investors be worried about higher inflation? Recent strong inflation data have heightened concerns about global price pressures. At present, we think there will be limited impact on short-term property performance. Further out though, higher... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack ‘Transitory’ inflation claims look less convincing The further jump in CPI inflation in May was again driven by a handful of categories most affected by the lifting of pandemic restrictions. But there were also clear signs that inflationary pressures... 16th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The rise in inflation to 3.6% in May was driven by several factors including ongoing global supply constraints, the booming housing market, and the start of the re-opening process. While inflation is... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (May) With businesses having raised their prices by more than we expected once they reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns ended, we now think CPI inflation will rise to a peak of 2.9% later this year compared... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (May) The rise in inflation in Israel to 1.5% y/y in May was partly driven by food and energy, but there are some signs that underlying price pressures have increased. We think that inflation will rise... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (May) The second consecutive drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.9% y/y in May, will probably go some way towards easing policymakers’ recent concerns about high and rising inflation. While we... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Saudi inflation to 5.7% y/y in May is likely to be followed by another increase in June, but the headline rate will fall sharply in July to around 1.0-1.5% y/y as the effects of last year... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) India’s consumer price inflation jumped to a six-month high in May on the back of an unexpected surge in core inflation, which we suspect is a result of rising commodity prices now seeping into retail... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation surged to a three-decade high in May on the back of the sharp rise in global commodity prices and will be a concern for policymakers. However, there are reasons to think that... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Lasting price pressures building The continued surge in prices last month was again mostly concentrated in sectors reopening or facing intense supply constraints, which allows the Fed to stick with its “largely transitory” story for... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No inflation scare in Scandinavia or Switzerland… If there is a global inflation scare, the Scandinavians are yet to get the memo. In a week when we learnt that core inflation hit a 28-year high in the US in May, we also learnt that the core... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Inflation fears, Euro 2020 hopes The mounting evidence that price pressures are rising is a threat to our forecast that CPI inflation won’t spend a long time above the 2% target until late in 2023. The good news, though, is that if... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect higher inflation to derail US equities While we think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate, we still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Monsoon puts a cloud over vaccine rollout The monsoon season has begun in India and the extent of the rains has a significant impact on the incomes of hundreds of millions of families given the high level of employment in agriculture. A good... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for US & E-Z yields Despite the limited market reaction to today’s higher-than expected US CPI print, we still think that the yield of US 10-year Treasuries will rise this year as high inflation proves persistent. We... 10th June 2021 · 6 mins read
