Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBA will hike rates to 2% by year-end The RBA started hiking the cash rate today and sounded hawkish for the first since the start of the pandemic. Our forecast that interest rates will reach 2% by year-end is far above the analyst... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Stagflation may prolong the woes of euro-zone financial markets The latest euro-zone economic data reinforce our view that the region is headed for a year of stagflation; against this backdrop we expect that euro-zone assets and the euro will struggle over the... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Tightening cycles to be gradual Central banks across the region have recently turned more hawkish. Over the past month or so, policymakers in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan have all tightened policy... 29th April 2022 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack China will barely grow in dollar terms this year President Xi has reportedly told officials to ensure that China’s real GDP growth exceeds that of the US this year. This is likely to happen on paper. The published data usually confirm that growth... 29th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike by 15bp next week Inflation is now surging in Australia and that surge is spreading well beyond the impact of soaring commodity prices. We therefore think the RBA needs to begin tightening policy. The RBA might want to... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ still likely to tweak Yield Curve Control The Bank of Japan remained under pressure to defend its yield target this week and pledged on Thursday to keep buying an unlimited amount of bonds for as long as necessary. While 10-year JGB yields... 29th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Pockets of public debt vulnerability Tighter global monetary conditions and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused public debt problems to worsen in several emerging markets, and the MENA region is not immune to this. Within the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas price cap won’t solve Spain’s inflation problem The cap on the wholesale natural gas price for the Iberian market will result in a bigger fall in energy inflation in Spain than we had previously expected. It might also dampen underlying price... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
India Chart Pack Monetary conditions tighten The key policy development this month was the introduction of a new Standing Deposit Facility, through which the RBI will drain excess banking sector liquidity. The SDF now provides the floor for the... 28th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany & Spain Flash Inflation (April) The further rise in headline inflation in Germany, and increase in the underlying rate in Spain, suggest that euro-zone inflation will come in around 7.4% in April. This will do nothing to change the... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal positions largely going from worse to bad Fiscal positions across Sub-Saharan Africa have been a persistent source of concern since the onset of the pandemic – and in some cases, even before. And the commodity price moves resulting from the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New headwinds emerge Our GDP growth forecasts are generally above the consensus, but with higher commodity prices and weaker global demand set to weigh on economic recoveries, growth across much of Emerging Asia will be... 28th April 2022 · 35 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Food inflation a growing concern Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to... 27th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Productivity rebound to offset stronger wage growth The further fall in the unemployment rate in March, to a multi-decade low of 5.3%, raises the risk that a sharp acceleration in wage growth will exacerbate inflationary pressures, at a time when... 27th April 2022 · 8 mins read
