Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to push back taper With New South Wales today declaring a “national emergency” in response to the worsening outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to play its part... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update New CPI weights will keep a lid on inflation The introduction of new CPI weights will prevent inflation from rising by as much as in the US but, with firms’ selling price expectations continuing to increase, the risks to inflation still seem to... 22nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The small fall in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.8% y/y in the first half of July was mainly due to fuel inflation dropping back, while the core rate remained stubbornly high at 4.6% y/y. The... 22nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Post-pandemic recovery phase drawing to a close As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts... 22nd July 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Vaccines should limit Delta damage While infections are now rising sharply nationwide – particularly in Tokyo where the Delta variant has the strongest hold – most of the vulnerable population are now fully vaccinated so we doubt... 22nd July 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in June, to 4.9% y/y, and with soft underlying price pressures and clouds over the economic recovery, the Reserve Bank will stand pat at tomorrow’s MPC... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation has now peaked Amid the ongoing debate over inflation in a post-pandemic world, one thing that does appear clear is that near-term price pressures in India have peaked. Consumer price inflation held steady in June... 21st July 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Rates to remain low as virus disruption worsens Surging infections across South East Asia and the slow progress of vaccine rollouts mean that COVID-19 will continue to cause widespread economic disruption across large parts of the region until at... 20th July 2021 · 34 mins read
US Economics Delta variant adds to consumption headwinds Although 60% of American adults are now fully vaccinated, the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a slight rebound in fears over the spread of the... 20th July 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Surge in inflation won’t be sustained Our forecast that COVID-19 won’t significantly reduce potential supply means that the economy can run a bit hotter for longer without generating the persistent rise in inflation that would require... 20th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Not all doom and gloom Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a... 19th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the (slightly) mixed messages in markets In recent weeks, it has often looked as though equity markets aren’t quite on the same page as bond and currency markets. Indeed, despite its fall today, the S&P 500 remains within touching distance... 19th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: surging inflation to prompt more rate hikes Russian inflation shows no sign of letting up and looks set to remain above the central bank’s 4% target until at least the end of next year. With households’ inflation expectations also rising, we... 19th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics South Africa after the unrest There are signs that the worst of the violence and unrest that has gripped South Africa this week may be over. Any hit to economic activity is unlikely to be long-lasting but the risk that the... 16th July 2021 · 7 mins read
