Japan Economics Update Short-lived spike in underlying inflation on the cards The surge in input prices caused by supply shortages is starting to show signs of filtering through into higher output prices. Combined with upwards pressure on services inflation from a “vaccine... 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack OPEC+ agreement provides a boost to Gulf recoveries The end of the impasse within OPEC+ this month will result in higher oil output and boost recoveries in the Gulf over the second half of this year and in 2022. Output quotas will rise by 400,000bpd... 28th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Activity rebounding as economies re-open The region’s economies have continued to rebound strongly over the past month as virus outbreaks have largely been contained and restrictions have been lifted. Surveys of sentiment in the services... 28th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Consumer Prices (Jun.) Consumer prices increased only marginally in June but, as firms’ selling price expectations are currently very elevated, we continue to expect inflation to rebound back toward 4% soon. 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Singapore: moving beyond zero-COVID In a bold move that will be closely watched across the region, Singapore is set to drop its implicit target of pursuing zero local COVID-19 cases, with restrictions set to be eased gradually from... 28th July 2021 · 14 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Pandemic rebound peaks but recovery story still intact The initial post-pandemic resurgence is nearing its zenith, but strong policy support and limited private sector debt should allow most economies to grow at a healthy pace over the next two years. The... 28th July 2021 · 45 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2021) Most of the surge in inflation in Q2 was driven by base effects that will unwind over the next couple of quarters, but we think that inflation will remain stronger than the RBA is anticipating. 28th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market sell-off and the rest of the world Although equity indices in both Hong Kong and mainland China have fallen sharply in recent days, the impact on financial markets elsewhere in the world has, so far, been remarkably limited. This... 27th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 looking brighter While the regional economic recovery stuttered in Q2, it appears to be gathering pace in Q3. New COVID-19 cases have dropped back, particularly in Chile and Uruguay suggesting that their rapid... 27th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Inflation won’t surge in the euro-zone like in the US We think that euro-zone headline inflation will rise further than most expect in the second half of this year. But rather than reaching the levels of around 5% seen in the US, it is likely to top out... 27th July 2021 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- How inflationary is the border closure? We believe that the slump in net migration is holding back supply more than demand. Unless the government allows net migration to overshoot its pre-virus level for a prolonged period once the border... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Delta despairs, Bolsonaro’s giveaways The third virus wave currently underway in Mexico, driven by the contagious Delta variant, will probably weigh on activity this quarter. But, for now, we don’t think that it will derail the economic... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Negative rates and QE forever? The change in the ECB’s policy guidance, announced yesterday, strengthens our view that the Bank will leave its deposit rate unchanged at -0.5% until beyond 2025 and will continue with large-scale... 23rd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam-US tensions ease, new GDP forecasts Surging virus cases have cast a shadow over Vietnam’s near-term outlook, but there has also been some good news in the form of Monday’s announcement of a resolution to the long-running currency... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2021) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 8.6% y/y in the middle of July means that the headline rate is overshooting the central bank’s latest projections. That’s likely to tip the balance on Copom towards... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
