Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s virus resurgence, re-opening inflation in CEE The experience of Israel in recent weeks serves as a reminder that vaccine campaigns across Emerging Europe still have some way to go and that we are likely to have to learn to live with COVID long... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Democrats kick-start budget; Powell future uncertain The Democrats’ $3.5trn budget proposal is only the first step in what could be a protracted negotiation to a final bill, which will be roughly fiscally neutral. Meanwhile, another dovish showing from... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Spare capacity in labour market mutes wage pressures We now expect the euro-zone economy to grow more quickly this year than the consensus or the ECB expects. Inflation too will be higher than others are forecasting as supply shortages persist into the... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Strong rebound and temporary rise in inflation The euro-zone is on the way to an almost full recovery. We expect Germany to regain its pre-pandemic level of activity later this year and the tourist-dependent southern countries to do so next year... 16th July 2021 · 33 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumers are playing their part China’s post-lockdown recovery is a lot less patchy than generally thought. Today’s detailed GDP figures suggest that, apart from in pockets like tourism and restaurants, the retail sector is... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics SNB not following ECB; Sweden bucks inflation trend The SNB confirmed this week that it wouldn’t be following the ECB in raising its inflation target, but that doesn’t change the big picture that it looks set to leave interest rates on hold for a very... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics New BoE and gilt yield forecasts This week’s signs that two members of the Monetary Policy Committee have become more worried about the upside risks to inflation have led us to bring forward our forecast of when policy will be... 16th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia becomes virus epicentre The virus situation across South East Asia has gone from bad to worse over the past couple of weeks, with Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam all reporting a record high number of daily cases... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The latest drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.8% y/y in June, is likely to reassure policymakers that price pressures are softening and that policy tightening is not necessary to curb... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to tighten policy as inflation surges The RBNZ announced an end to its asset purchases at this week’s meeting. And given the Bank’s hawkish tone, along with the strong inflation data in Q2, we now think the Bank will begin lifting... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) We had already expected the RBNZ to hike rates in August and the surge in inflation in Q2 only bolsters our confidence in that forecast. 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in headline inflation in Israel to a near 8-year high of 1.7% y/y in June was largely a result of base effects that pushed up food inflation. The muted 0.1% m/m rise in prices suggests that... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Consumption to drive recovery The lifting of restrictions and ongoing policy support should translate into a sustained period of above-potential GDP growth, driven by consumption and business investment. We expect GDP growth of 6... 15th July 2021 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Broad recovery continues, but Delta poses some risks Global economic activity looks to have perked up recently, despite a slowdown in China and a slightly weaker re-opening bounce in the US than most had anticipated. The hard economic data have revealed... 15th July 2021 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom Sydney’s lockdown will keep a lid on Australia’s recovery for now, but booming housing markets should support consumer spending and dwellings investment in both countries. We don’t expect labour... 15th July 2021 · 24 mins read
