Africa Economics Economic fortunes changing in Zambia and South Africa? This week Zambians voted in tightly contested elections and, while the results have not yet been announced, one way or another it looks like fiscal policy will be tightened. Meanwhile in South Africa... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics June’s resilience won’t last as virus disruptions hit The 1.0% m/m rise in GDP in June was an impressive result. But we suspect that GDP growth in Q3 will be closer to 2.0% q/q than the 2.9% q/q forecast by the Bank of England. And we still think that... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Bank hints at benefits of new policy framework A new paper from the Bank of Canada outlines some additional economic benefits of a new monetary policy framework, which could be a sign that there is a greater chance of the Bank adopting average... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Inflation peaking; growing chance of earlier taper While the July inflation data this week added to signs that we’re past the peak of “transitory” gains in prices for used autos and reopening services, the pick-up in some of the more cyclically driven... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German election getting complicated The latest opinion polls suggest that Germany’s election, on 26 th September, will be a close-run affair, with many coalition governments still potentially feasible. Whether or not the Greens are part... 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slight pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in July was primarily driven by a rise in energy inflation. However, the fall in core inflation to its lowest level since 2014, means that the Riksbank... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Peak global growth narrative lacks nuance Slowdowns in China and the US should not be taken as evidence that the global recovery is stalling. Admittedly, it is not just some high-profile data from the US and China that have weakened recently... 12th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields and oil prices will continue to diverge Although the two markets have often moved in tandem, we expect Treasury yields to continue to rise over the next few years even as oil prices resume their decline. 12th August 2021 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped below the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range in July, and we think further falls are likely. With the economy also still weak, there should be little... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Consumer Prices (Jul.) The more modest 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in July indicates that the transitory burst of rising prices linked to reopening is fading and that, after falling to 4.3% from 4.5% in June, core... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think the divergence in “rotation sectors” will continue We think that the sectoral outperformance so far this month of financials relative to energy and materials has further to run. 10th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Jul.) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation to 9.0% y/y in July will add to the central bank’s concerns over the inflation outlook. We think that its aggressive tightening cycle has much further... 10th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to an eight-month high in July and is likely to drift higher over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will keep... 10th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.) The small increase in headline CPI inflation in Norway, and the bigger decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure, will have no bearing on the near-term outlook for monetary policy given that... 10th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Some more thoughts on the Treasury yield curve Our expectation that the US yield curve will “bear steepen” might seem strange given its behaviour ahead of recent major Fed tightening cycles. After all, in three of the last four, the spread between... 9th August 2021 · 4 mins read
